That might seem like it’s too good to be true, and it probably is.
Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood has made a name for herself as a bit of a financial maverick. She seems to like going against the grain and is unafraid of making bets — and sticking to them — that others might shy away from. For example, even with all of its recent woes, Wood is unapologetic in her backing of Tesla. Beyond these bold bets, however, are her often-bolder public predictions.
Chief among these is her belief that Bitcoin (BTC -0.42%) will continue to rise in price to levels that most crypto investors can only dream of. Wood is a huge proponent of Bitcoin and crypto more generally and was one of the more influential figures in getting spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. During that process, she stated that her company believed Bitcoin could be worth as much as $1.5 million by the end of the decade (her base case target was $600,000, still not a bad return).
However, more recently, she has said she believes the upper target could be as high as $3.8 million by 2030. That’s a roughly 6,200% return from today’s price and represents a more than 100% annual return.
Wood’s reasoning relies on a critical component that, while possible, just isn’t likely
Let’s first make something clear. Wood was not necessarily saying she expects Bitcoin to reach $3.8 million, but rather that it is possible. Her reasoning is institutional money flooded the market after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and that if institutional investors were to put an average of 5% of their collective portfolios into the cryptocurrency it could reach that high. This is a huge “if.”
It’s hard to put an exact number on the state of the market now, but a 2023 report from Ernst & Young states that 55% of institutional investors with more than $500 billion in assets — where the lion’s share of total assets are concentrated — say they had less than 1% allocated to “digital assets.” Sixteen percent say they had less than 0.1%. Most funds prefer traditional equities and fixed-income investments. Only roughly 7% of total managed assets are in “alternative investments,” which includes a broad array of assets, from farm land to private equity to crypto. To have a total average of 5% in just Bitcoin by 2030 is a stretch at best.
Still, it’s worth noting investors are increasingly allocating money toward Bitcoin. In fact, 12% of respondents in the same category said they had more than 5% allocated and 25% of managers of all sizes have more than 5%. The vast majority of respondents expect to raise their investments in the future as well. This additional institutional capital will add a lot of value to the Bitcoin market.
Temper your expectations and remember to think about conflicts of interest
Wood is betting big on Bitcoin. She is personally invested in it and her firm’s revenue is, in part, tied to the size of the firm’s spot Bitcoin ETF. She has a vested interest in getting people excited about the returns they could achieve by investing in Bitcoin.
I do agree with her more generally though. Bitcoin will appreciate in value and, in my opinion, at a rate that exceeds traditional equities, just not as fast as she is implying. I think Bitcoin has proven it’s here to stay at this point. We’ve likely seen the last of Bitcoin losing half its value in a day or two. However, gone also are the days when you could buy $1,000 worth and become a millionaire a few years later. Sorry — you would have had to buy in sometime before 2014. Today, you should think of Bitcoin as much more like a traditional asset.
It’s still relatively new though. There is a lot of capital on the sidelines still waiting it out or at least just dipping a toe in. The more risk-tolerant institutions have already forged a path for the industry. I think more risk-averse players like pension funds and endowments will start getting in.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
