Bitcoin (BTC 3.05%) now trades at about around $82,000, but under the right conditions, it could fly to $200,000 or more, if given enough time.
There are a pair of new possibilities in particular that could be responsible for driving a large part of that move. Both of them have to do with the economy and government of China, the world’s second-largest economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP).
Let’s examine both of these trends to see how they could make the case for buying Bitcoin even stronger than it already is.
Economic stimulus could boost crypto buying activity
China’s economy is driven by its vast domestic market as well as its export-focused industries in electronics and machinery. For its domestic market to function smoothly, consumers need to be making money and spending it on Chinese produced goods. If incomes are insufficient, or if people are reluctant to spend, the economy will not have enough demand for businesses to remain healthy.
It appears that the Chinese government is worried enough about that possibility to take action. Under a new policy package announced on March 16, building on previous proposals released during the past few months, the country will raise its minimum wage and significantly expand its social safety net, among other measures, in an attempt to raise consumer incomes.
At the same time, China’s central bank has stated that it may slash its main interest rate, reducing borrowing costs for businesses, and it may also inject liquidity directly into its financial system. Other measures intended to prop up the economy — like issuing more debt, and running a bigger budget deficit — are also underway and may be expanded in time.
So there will be a comprehensive set of new stimuli for China’s economy. The push may or may not succeed in driving more domestic demand, but given the whole-economy approach, it is more likely to succeed than to fail. But how does any of that relate to Bitcoin?
After all, mining and trading cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are officially banned in China. But as of late February, the highest judicial court in the country was discussing regulations pertaining to the legal status of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.
If those discussions ultimately lead to Bitcoin legalization (and they might), it would be a new catalyst for the coin. But if that legalization occurred precisely when people’s incomes were rising rapidly, and when they were being encouraged to both invest and consume, the positive impact on the coin’s price might be even stronger, which is the upside possibility that’s worth understanding here.
That’s especially plausible, because earlier this year, the government directed its pensions and mutual funds to invest more in domestic stocks to support prices. In other words, if Bitcoin is legalized and the government understands that its newly wealthier citizens are buying an asset, it could tell its businesses to buy the coin, too, to make sure that its price is supported. And that would send the coin even higher.
Following the new U.S. crypto policy would be huge
For the moment, the above sequence of events is somewhere between a pipe dream and reality. But there’s one other huge possibility that, if it happens, would make the first possibility much more likely, and also a more potent tailwind for the coin.
China may be considering or already is working toward forming a national Bitcoin repository, much as the U.S. now is with its plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. That’s much more realistic than it sounds. More than 21% of the global mining capacity for Bitcoin is illicitly based in China.
Therefore, if the country were to form a Bitcoin repository, it would be doing so as a way to back one of its domestic industries while supporting the value of the assets in its reserve. Under those conditions, it would not be surprising if companies were advised to retain some Bitcoin, create positive price pressure for the country’s miners as well as (possibly) its newly invested citizens.
And that would be a powerful set of interlinked drivers that could send Bitcoin’s price to $200,000 or even higher.
So, what should you do? Gradually accumulate and hold Bitcoin. It will be hard to go wrong if these possibilities end up playing out. Keep in mind that there is no guarantee that the government of China will actually move forward with legalization or its Bitcoin reserve — but at the same time, recognize that the asset is worth buying even if neither of those possibilities actually happen.
