Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, says he’s open to conceding a major forecast error, if Bitcoin BTC/USD breaks above $100,000.
What Happened: In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ju acknowledged that Bitcoin is now trading 10% higher than when he recently declared the bull cycle to be over.
Despite the move, he remains cautious, stating, “If it breaks above $100K, I’ll gladly admit I was wrong.”
Ju’s recent comments on X follow his earlier analysis, which flagged a potential market top based on historical on-chain data.
CryptoQuant’s proprietary PnL Index chart, which tracks Bitcoin’s price against on-chain profitability metrics over a decade, recently issued a sell signal similar to those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each preceding significant corrections or consolidation.
“We are likely past the bull cycle peak,” Ju had warned, anticipating sideways or bearish movement for six to twelve months. However, Bitcoin’s price has since risen 10% above his initial call, despite a recent 10% drop.
The comments come amid a volatile week in crypto markets.
Also Read: Why Bitcoin Reclaiming $92,900 Could Be A Pivotal Moment: Glassnode
Why It Matters: As of Thursday evening European time, Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, down about 1% on the day.
Ethereum ETH/USD is lower at $1,755, while XRP XRP/USD, BNB BNB/USD, and Solana SOL/USD are showing modest declines or trading flat.
Ju emphasized that short-term market moves are increasingly driven by event-based reactions, referencing political developments—making them difficult to interpret with traditional on-chain cycle indicators.
“My focus is on long-term supply and demand using on-chain data,” he noted. “But in a market that reacts to every Trump comment, short-term price actions are much more event-driven.”
He added that if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before Q4, he would be forced to reconsider prevailing cycle theories: “In that case, the permabulls were right. Up only.”
Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, commented on broader market influences, stating, “Today’s U.S. calendar includes initial jobless claims and existing home sales, key reads on labor market health and consumer confidence.”
He added that Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Alphabet’s earnings could further impact risk appetite amid trade policy uncertainty.
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