Apple Park – Image Credit: Apple
Analysts at JP Morgan are looking more favorably at Q2 results, predicting that Apple may actually see increased revenue in Q3 thanks to short-term effects of the ongoing U.S.-China tariff battle.
Apple will be reporting its Q2 2025 earnings on May 1, to a background of a tariff war between the U.S. and China. Despite the noise, JP Morgan is still looking towards good results for the concluded quarter.
In the near-term view, a note to investors seen by AppleInsider proposes Apple will have a good quarter, thanks to a pull-forward of demand for iPhones, Macs, and other products. The early-year threat of tariffs will have modestly increased demand, causing early consumer upgrades as well as an increased influx of inventory by retailers.
This positive view has led to JP Morgan increasing its Q2 2025 forecast, raising the revenue from $93.5 billion to $95.8 billion, while earnings per share is upped from $1.59 to $1.66. These are both higher than the consensus of $94.2 billion and $1.61 respectively.
The change implies a revenue growth for Apple of 5.5% year-on-year, if it reaches the new value.
There is also an expectation for gross margins to remain resilient even though concerns are raised over tariffs. The report expects that margins it will track to 47.1%, in line with its consensus.
Q3 positivity
The Q3 results will be the most problematic for Apple, since it will be the one directly affected by the Donald Trump administration’s introduction of global tariffs. That, and the tariff battle it caused with China.
JPM isn’t too bothered about it, though. For the quarter, it offers better-than-feared expectations with a conservative guide of low single-digit growth.
The uncertainty of the tariff situation will cause some pull-forward from consumers and retailers. It’s expected that, rather than wait and encounter higher prices, consumers and stores will be buying and stocking up on products before those tariffs become a pricing problem.
The analysts believe that there could still be a 6% year-on-year revenue growth for the third quarter. However it also anticipates Apple being conservative with its guidance, and to offer low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth for the period.
In that quarter, JPM tentatively forecasts revenues of $90.8 billion, against a consensus view of $89.2 billion. The gross margin will be slightly lower at 46.3% versus the consensus 46.7%, but the earnings per share is expected to be higher at $1.51 versus $1.48.
For investors, JPM’s Q3 analysis is a fairly optimistic view of what could happen during a very turbulent financial period. Three months is a long time away to speculate on financials, especially given the rapid changes that happened to the markets during just a few weeks in April.
For the moment, JP Morgan rates Apple’s shares as “Overweight” with a $245 price target.
