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In the unstable world of cryptos, every economic statistic can reshuffle the cards. After a jump of more than 10 % in one week, bitcoin is entering a critical phase. Upcoming releases in the United States (inflation, employment, industry) could reshape market sentiment. In a climate already weakened by April’s turmoil, the slightest surprise could reignite volatility or extend consolidation. This week promises to be decisive for BTC’s trajectory and investor appetite.
In brief
- Bitcoin records an increase of more than 10 % in one week, driven by massive purchases on the spot market.
- Support from spot Bitcoin ETFs, notably 21Shares and Coinbase, has strengthened the bullish momentum.
- The crypto market is now awaiting the release of several major US economic indicators.
- Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase if economic data disappoint expectations.
The rally drivers : between massive buying and ETF momentum
After several weeks of volatility, bitcoin has started a strong rebound, driven by a series of positive announcements on the institutional flow front. Bitcoin’s rise could falter if spot buying volumes sharply decrease.
Such a situation could highlight how much the recent ascent is related to massive purchases on the spot market. Among the identified catalysts are notably :
- A massive purchase by Strategy, worth 1.42 billion dollars of bitcoin ;
- Continuous support from spot Bitcoin ETFs, notably carried by 21Shares and Coinbase ;
- Sustained demand on the spot market, favored by the absence of recent negative macroeconomic announcements.
These elements allowed bitcoin to reach 95,700 dollars, reconnecting with its highest levels in several weeks.
The rise relied on an exceptionally favorable environment, marked by a strong renewed interest in risky assets. However, a quiet week on the crypto news front could result in reduced spot demand.
In the absence of new positive catalysts, buying pressure could weaken, exposing bitcoin to critical tests below 93,000 dollars.
The impact of US economic data : between caution and consolidation
While bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range from 93,000 to 95,500 dollars, attention is now focused on a series of decisive macroeconomic releases for the immediate market evolution.
Starting April 29, investors will scrutinize the JOLTS report, which will measure job openings and hiring trends in the United States. This data could provide “an insight into how the trade war and tariffs led by the United States are digested by the labor market”, a key element in assessing economic strength.
The next day, the release of the Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, will be particularly watched to gauge the future trajectory of US monetary policy.
Then, on May 1st, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will add another layer of information on the state of the already fragile US industrial economy due to trade tensions. Markets could react negatively if the report shows further deterioration of the ISM PMI, reflecting the prevailing nervousness.
Finally, the official employment report, expected on May 2, could confirm or disprove the thesis of a marked economic slowdown. If these indicators disappoint, they would reinforce investors’ cautious trend, triggering a partial disengagement from risky assets like bitcoin.
Faced with this high-risk sequence, bitcoin could continue to consolidate around its current levels unless there is a favorable surprise in the economic data. In case of negative confirmations, the initiated bullish momentum could be seriously compromised, making way for increased volatility. Conversely, better figures could provide a breath of fresh air to the market, allowing for a new test of 95,700 dollars or more.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
