Table of Contents
ToggleIn brief
- President Trump’s tease of a U.S.-UK trade deal sent Bitcoin surging to its highest level since February.
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, with Chair Powell citing “heightened uncertainty” but a “solid” economic backdrop.
- Analysts told Decrypt that traders see a “Trump put” under crypto, but Nansen warned sentiment may be “getting ahead of fundamentals.”
Bitcoin briefly surged above $99,000 early Thursday, its highest price since February, as President Trump teased a possible international trade agreement with the UK.
The crypto asset is now within striking distance of its all-time high set in March and is now eyeing $100,000. The asset is up 2.6% after retreating from a daily high above $94,000, as per CoinGecko data.
“MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY,” Trump posted late Wednesday on Truth Social, announcing a Thursday morning press conference at the White House.
The deal involves Britain, as per sources cited by The New York Times, marking a potential diplomatic milestone following months of tariff-driven economic tension under Trump’s “Liberation Day” agenda.
The country has been subject to a 10% general tariff and a 25% levy on steel, aluminum, and automobiles under the U.S. tariff regime.
British officials have been advocating for relief in these sectors, and the prospective deal is expected to address these concerns. In return, the U.K. may consider reducing its digital services tax and tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.
The rally for the world’s largest crypto followed a cautiously optimistic Federal Reserve policy update earlier in the day, with equities, including the S&P 500 and the Dow, rising modestly at just under 1%.
While confirming the rate pause at 4.25%–4.50%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged “heightened uncertainty” and pointed out that “the economy is still in a solid position.”
Simmering down
Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at onchain analytics platform Nansen, told Decrypt that recent statements by Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled to the market that “tariff escalation may be less aggressive than feared.”
The analyst noted how traders are now treating Trump’s administration as a “backstop for risk,” adding, “Markets seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, Treasuries, and crypto.”
Still, she warned that “this rally still needs validation,” especially as trade talks with China continue.
“We’ve priced in scenario one,” she said, referring to Nansen’s internal forecast, which assigns a 55% probability to Bitcoin gradually reaching new all-time highs.
But Barthere said the bullish momentum is now “less asymmetric,” meaning there’s less room for upside surprise.
Marcin Kazmierczak, COO and co-founder of modular oracle RedStone, offered a broader macro perspective, pointing to how Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets has been fluid over the past year:
“Bitcoin exhibits variable correlation with the S&P 500 over the past year, fluctuating between approximately -0.2 and 0.4,” he told Decrypt.
Kazmierczak explained that this puts Bitcoin firmly in the “diversifier” category, not a true “safe haven,” because it “doesn’t consistently move opposite to stocks during downturns.”
In its latest outlook, shared with Decrypt, Nansen warned that market sentiment may be “getting ahead of fundamentals.”
The report flagged a sharp drop in the equity risk premium, now below 3%, as evidence that traders are “underpricing downside risks” despite fragile consumption data, stalled trade talks with China, and core services inflation continuing to climb.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
Daily Debrief Newsletter
Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
