In our previous two updates, we showed that the Global M2 Money Supply (GMS) and the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, aka “smart money,” aligned well with our Bullish Elliott Wave (EW) Principle count for BTC. Back then, BTC was trading at around $83K.
Fast-forward over three weeks, and Bitcoin is now trading at $104K—a 24% gain. That’s what happens when the EW aligns with important externalities such as liquidity—a powerful, indispensable forecasting tool. However, we believe the party is just getting started. Many will be left behind, and FOMO (the Fear of Missing Out) will take hold once we see +$10K weeks. Allow us to explain below. Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Bitcoin’s daily price chart with our preferred EW count
Contingent on holding above $93326, BTC should be setting up powerful nested first and second waves: green W-1, 2, grey W-i, ii. The 3rd wave should soon commence, targeting at least $131K. For those who have followed our updates for a while, you may recall we’re tracking Bitcoin’s four-phase halving cycle, which is now in its final bullish year of the current cycle. The ideal upside target zone is $164-216K with an outside chance of as high as $337K. See Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Bitcoin’s monthly price chart with our preferred EW count, four-phase cycle, and trade signals
Based on our Elliott Wave analyses, Bitcoin is now in the red W-v of the black W-5, etc. This red W-v will subdivide into five smaller (green) waves, as shown in Figure 1, where we applied a standard Fibonacci-based impulse pattern. That path tells us to expect the green W-5 of the red W-v to target $135-140K. However, based on the more crucial monthly chart shown in Figure 2, that target zone falls slightly short of the lower end of the ideal $164-216K range. Thus, we should expect an extension of the green waves:
- W-3 will likely target the 2.618x extension instead of the standard 1.618x, which points to $155K,
- W-5 will likely target the 3.000x extension instead of the standard 2.000x, which points to $164K.
