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(Kitco News) – It was a relatively flat day price action-wise in the cryptocurrency market as a slow news day, the start of the Sam Bankman-Fried trial, and Friday’s upcoming labor market data had investors focused on matters other than trading digital assets.
Both the DXY and 10-year Treasury note continued to correct following their recent breakout to multi-year highs, but that was of little consequence to the stock market, which fell under heavy pressure at the market open and spent the remainder of the trading day attempting to climb out of that hole.
At the market close, the S&P and Nasdaq finished down 0.13% and 0.12%, respectively, while the Dow ended the day flat.
Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price whipsawed near midday, spiking to a high of $27,840 before bears smacked it down to a low of $27,358, before ultimately settling near support at $27,500 at the time of writing.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
Data from the futures market shows that “October Bitcoin futures prices [were] firmer in early U.S. trading Thursday,” according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.
Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Kitco
“The bulls have the near-term technical advantage and are enjoying a price uptrend in place on the daily chart,” Wyckoff said. “The path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher in the near term.”
According to technical analyst CryptoCon, there is currently an intense battle between Bitcoin bulls and bears at the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA).
BTC 20-week EMA support. Source: Twitter
“In August, Bitcoin lost the [EMA] as support. The bulls are fighting, and have managed to get price back above,” CryptoCon said. “After the bear market downtrend is over, we typically see one fake out to the downside once the initial bullish burst is complete. Many are concerned and expecting a red circle 2019 scenario, where [the] price is rejected and makes another move lower. Personally, I think there is a good chance we reclaim it since [the] price was not parabolic in 2023, as it was then. Bears are in big trouble if this support is maintained.”
Market analyst Rekt Capital noted that whether you look at the 2015 or 2019 price action for Bitcoin, both showed significant declines at this point in time, roughly 200 days before the next halving, which suggests one more major pullback is on offer.
You can debate whether 2023 is more like 2015 or more like 2019 as much as you like
Doesn’t change the fact that $BTC retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before the Halving)#Crypto #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/6b05tVHMFk
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 4, 2023
In a follow-up post, Rekt Capital said his “plan is to dollar cost average into Bitcoin for the remainder of the Pre-Halving period in preparation for the parabolic uptrend after the halving.”
And market analyst Crypto Bullet sought to bring a little balance to the argument, saying that both bulls and bears are wrong, and the ultimate result will fall somewhere between their perspectives.
Bears want to buy below $15k
Bulls think that we’re going straight up from here (as they always do lol)None of them will be right IMO! Something in between will be just perfect to trap both sides (🐻/🐂)
$19-21k #BTC in Q4 🤫 https://t.co/QTw2ImmNLv
— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) October 4, 2023
Altcoins mostly down
A large majority of tokens in the top 200 traded in the red on Thursday, with most tokens trading within ±3% of yesterday’s prices.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Loom Network (LOOM) and STP (STPT) were the standout exceptions, gaining 34.43% and 15.15%, respectively, while Tellor (TRB) and Gala (GALA) led the losers with declines of 5.65%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.08 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 49.7%.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
