Bitcoin’s halving is happening this month.
This is an update on my bitcoin
BTC
This is the route map of the next move:
The bitcoin chart: route map to the next move
This is the fundamental projection. Of course, it won’t be exactly this, and all sorts of unpredictable events can knock bitcoin off this course, or accelerate it or enhance it. However, this is the base case.
Classically we can see the various steps as repricing events followed by equilibrium followed by repricing. As such, the old school way of monitoring developments is to put bounds around periods of equilibrium and wait to see if they break up or down.
Here is an example of the current bitcoin chart with this technique applied:
The bitcoin chart with bounds around periods of equilibrium
So if we go back to basics on the whole idea of this bitcoin boom we hit the core ideas of wider acceptance and the halving driving an upwards repricing. Exchange-traded funds are here and have had a positive effect but the halving is still to happen. So a bull will see this meaning there is at least one more leg up and that suggests a move like the one in the first chart.
This will not be enough for the bulls who will quickly see $150,000 and $250,000, etc. as the obvious destination for this cycle.
However, this is as far as I can stretch the logic of my roadmap:
The bitcoin chart route map as far as logic takes it
Ethereum is likely to run further in percentage terms. It still has its ETF to be allowed and it has always performed, perhaps outperformed, bitcoin in this part of the cycle. So that is my main thrust in staking out this run.
We are probably half way through this cyclical boom, so enjoy the ride but remember to get off, because it will peak quickly and ultimately we will likely get that crypto winter period again and go into another 4 year cycle.
Disclosure: I own bitcoin.
