Bitcoin’s uptrend since October 10 shows that investors are optimistic heading into the US presidential election results on November 5. This uptick in daily BTC volatility is likely to decrease on the announcement of the 47th president of the United States, regardless of who wins. There is, however, a slight nuance on how the crypto markets might react depending on the winner. If Kamala Harris wins, there might be a double-digit pullback in Bitcoin price, as expected by the majority of the investors.
Polymarket, an online betting platform, shows that bettors are in favor of former president Donald Trump. There is a 63.1% chance that Trump will become the next president of the United States of America. The recent BTC rally toward its all-time high (ATH) of $73,949 is a reflection of this outlook. Let’s explore how Bitcoin price will react if Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election.
The US Presidential Elections’ Impact on Bitcoin Price
The value of BTC is sensitive to US-based news, be it macroeconomic or political events. The reason for this is simple – BTC and the rest of the crypto market largely run on the US dollar, a world reserve currency. Hence, changes to the US economic policies or events adjacent to this impact BTC and, by default, the crypto markets.
Regardless of who wins, historical data shows that the financial markets rallied after the US elections.
So, the overall and long-term direction after the US elections on November 5 is northbound. But let’s take it a step further and analyze the short-term impact of this key event.
How Will Bitcoin Price React if Kamala Harris Wins
If Kamala Harris wins, then Bitcoin price is likely to suffer a small pullback. This short-term BTC retracement outlook is echoed by many investors. An 8% to 13% correction should be expected from Bitcoin if Harris wins against Trump. Following this outlook, BTC could continue its ascent toward the ATH.
The reason for this correction thesis is simple – Harris and her political party have not been an avid supporter of cryptocurrency. Although there were a few instances where Harris mentioned digital assets.
How Will Bitcoin Price React if Donal Trump Wins
If Donald Trump wins, the ongoing bullish outlook that propelled Bitcoin price from sib-$50,000 levels will likely continue. In such a case, BTC could breach the current ATH at $73,949 and set up a new one at $80,000.
This bullish outlook stems from the fact that Donald Trump has been a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies. Trump, along with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, has pledged to start Department of Government Efficiency, dubbed DOGE. Clearly, this is a play on words that relates to Dogecoin (DOGE), Musk’s favorite crypto and the first meme coin.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Knocks on Key Support Level
Although Bitcoin price prediction over the long-term is bullish, in the short-term outlook, the scenario could turn bearish quickly, if a key level is breached. The seven-month consolidation created a value area that extends from $68,958 to $59,364. This area is where nearly 70% of volume was traded and can be split into value area high and low. The highest volume traded level in this value area stands at $63,126, aka Point of Control (POC).
If Kamala Harris wins, investors can expect a breakdown of the value area high at $68,958. This development will spark an 8% to 13% correction to either the POC or the value area low.
On the other hand, a bounce off the value area high of $68,958 coupled with Trump’s victory in the US elections could send Bitcoin price beyond $80,000.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Yes, investors expect a small pullback, with an 8-13% correction, due to Harris’s lack of support for cryptocurrencies.
A Trump win is likely to continue the current bullish outlook, potentially breaching the $73,949 ATH and reaching $80,000.
Yes, BTC is sensitive to US-based news, especially macroeconomic and political events, due to its reliance on the US dollar.
Akash Girimath
Akash Girimath, an engineer by training, has developed a deep fascination with the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. As a senior reporter and analyst, he specializes in crypto analysis and contributes his expertise to notable platforms such as AMBCrypto and FXStreet. In addition to his analytical work, Akash actively trades cryptocurrencies and manages a small crypto fund for friends and family. His role involves providing insightful market analysis and keeping readers informed about the latest trends in the crypto world. Follow Him on Youtube , X and LInkedIn
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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