- Prediction markets show Trump’s support slipping as the Bitcoin gives back last week’s gains.
- Recent swing state polls suggest a razor-thin race.
Bitcoin has lost more than 7% from last week’s peak of $73,500 in a fall to $68,300 as prediction markets reveal a simultaneous dip in Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris.
On Polymarket, Trump’s odds dropped from 67% to 56%.
Meanwhile, Kalshi data shows his lead evaporated from 64% near the end of October to a narrow 51% against Harris’s 49%.
This dual decline may be a response to market sentiment around the approaching US presidential election.
Carlos Guzman, an analyst with crypto market-making firm GSR, noted Trump’s influence on short-term crypto sentiment.
“A Trump win would have a greater positive impact on prices in the short term given his campaign promises,” Guzman told DL News, pointing to his pro-crypto stance as a key market factor.
Trump has positioned himself as the more crypto-friendly candidate.
In May, he pledged to support cryptocurrency at a Mar-a-Lago event and even began accepting crypto donations for his campaign.
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Harris, by contrast, has been a bit more vague, mentioning in September that her administration would support digital assets to boost competitiveness.
The latest swing state polls are mirroring the volatility seen in Bitcoin and prediction markets.
Recent Times/Siena College polls show Harris gaining ground in North Carolina and Georgia, while Trump holds Arizona.
Pennsylvania and Michigan remain deadlocked.
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.
