Cryptocurrency prices generally declined on Monday as the digital asset markets remained volatile ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. Analysts generally contend the price of bitcoin will rally regardless of the outcome. But there could be some near-term uncertainty.
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“We continue to see plenty of support around crypto assets in 2024, including what promises to be a friendly incoming U.S. administration, whoever it might be,” Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group wrote to IBD. “Indeed, Trump has been decidedly more crypto-friendly. At the same time, this has forced the hand of the Harris campaign to take on its own crypto-friendly policies, all of which have been supportive in the lead up to the November election.”
Kruger noted that a lot of the uncertainty in the global markets has been centered around U.S. election risk. But he doubts there will be much impact other than short-term volatility in the immediate aftermath.
“We believe the most important takeaway with respect to the election is what we’ve already learned over the past several weeks — namely, the fact that both parties have recognized the important innovation in the space, while showing a clear willingness to support the emerging industry and asset class,” Kruger added.
Meanwhile, Kruger and LMAX forecast a “stellar” Q4 performance from bitcoin following a solid start to the year, setting the stage for a record high. Kruger points to $100,000 as the next major milestone, potentially before the year is out.
Elsewhere, Bernstein predicts bitcoin could hit $200,000 in 2025, also regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s election. A lack of U.S. fiscal discipline, record debt levels and monetary expansion have driven up demand for hard assets, analysts wrote in a research note obtained by The Block. The success of spot bitcoin ETFs further accelerated the trend with enough headroom for growth, Bernstein wrote.
The crypto markets haven’t yet priced in a victory for either candidate, Bernstein analysts assess. They expect bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 by Inauguration Day on Jan. 20 in the case of a Trump win. A Harris victory could prompt a drop to $50,000 over that period before recovering, according to the firm.
“We think once there is a clear winner, bitcoin will rally strongly,” Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, wrote to IBD, noting that occurred 4 years ago. However, Sigel believes that ethereum, solana and other alternative cryptocurrencies may require a Trump victory to outperform.
Bitcoin Election History
James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk, noted that the U.S. election has been a catalyst for bitcoin price surges, but those returns are diminishing. The price of bitcoin rocketed about 12,000% between Nov. 5, 2012 and November 2013. Following the 2016 election, bitcoin appreciated about 3,600% by December 2017. Bitcoin rallied 478% in the 12 months following the 2020 election.
Extending the prior trends implies a postelection rally of about 47.8%. That puts bitcoin around $103, 500 in Q4 of 2025, Van Straten wrote.
Bitcoin Price, Crypto Action
Bitcoin slid back below $68,000 on Monday, continuing its decline from a late October high above $73,500 — nearly touching its March 14 record of $73,798.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has rallied more than 61% so far this year.
Ethereum traded below $2,450 on Monday, also retreating from its Oct. 20 peak near $2,750. Ethereum is up about 6% in 2024 after reaching a 52-week high of $4,090 in March.
Coinbase (COIN) stock climbed 1.9% Monday, rebounding slightly off its 50-day line. Shares of the crypto exchange tumbled almost 11% last week after Coinbase missed Q3 earnings views.
Bitcoin miners Marathon Digital (MARA), Iren (IREN), Hut 8 (HUT), Core Scientific (CORZ), Bit Digital (BTBT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) all carved lower Monday as bitcoin eased.
Spot bitcoin ETFs as a group declined about 2.3% during Monday trade.
You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on X/Twitter @IBD_Harrison
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