Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin surged to a record high near $77,000 on Thursday, extending a rally that followed Donald Trump’s win in the presidential election, with investors seeing his future administration as a positive development for the cryptocurrency.
- The cryptocurrency has broken out above the upper trendline of a cup and handle pattern, potentially marking the start of a near-term move higher.
- A measured move, which calculates the depth of the “cup” portion of the pattern and adds that amount to the formation’s top trendline, projects a price target of $126,000.
- Investors should watch key support levels on Bitcoin’s chart around $70,000 and $53,000.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged to a record high near $77,000 on Thursday, extending a rally that followed Donald Trump’s win in the presidential election.
Investors view a future Trump Administration as a positive development for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency more broadly, specifically in relation to regulation and the potential for the creation of a federal strategic bitcoin reserve, two areas the president-elect addressed when delivering a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July.
The Trump-fueled momentum comes at a welcome time for the legacy cryptocurrency, which has traded mostly sideways over the past seven months as exuberance subsided following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January and the asset’s halving event in April. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has gained around 80%, adding the lion’s share of those gains in the first quarter.
Below, we analyze the technicals on Bitcoin’s weekly chart and identify important post-election price levels that investors may be watching.
Cup and Handle Pattern Breakout
Since its November 2021 peak, Bitcoin’s price has formed a cup and handle, a chart pattern that signals a continuation of the cryptocurrency’s longer-term uptrend.
Indeed, the price staged a breakout above the formation’s upper trendline on Wednesday, potentially marking the start of a near-term move higher.
It’s also worth pointing out, that although Bitcoin trading volumes on Coinbase (COIN) remain below longer-term averages, they have increased in recent weeks, suggesting that investors may be returning from the sidelines.
Let’s forecast a measured move price target and identify key support levels to watch during retracements.
Measured Move Price Target to Monitor
Although there’s limited overhead price action to work with, we can forecast a bullish target using a measured move, also known as the measuring principle.
This chart-based technique works by calculating the depth of the “cup” portion of the cup and handle pattern and adding that amount to the formation’s top trendline. In this case, we add $56,000 to $70,000, which predicts a measured move target of $126,000.
Key Support Levels to Watch
On initial pullbacks, investors should keep their eyes peeled on the technically important $70K level. A successful hold of this area could flip previous resistance into future support, setting a solid base for a potential move higher.
Finally, an inability by the bulls to defend this level could see Bitcoin’s price fall below the 50-week moving average and revisit lower support around $53,000, a region where the cryptocurrency could attract buying interest near the September 2021 peak and September 2024 trough.
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As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
