Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has announced his intention to sell his Bitcoin holdings once the price reaches $150,000, which represents a 53% increase from current levels. Currently, Wood has allocated 10% of his global portfolio for a US dollar-denominated pension fund to Bitcoin.
As of Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a high of $99,300, just shy of the anticipated $100,000 threshold following the US election. Wood initially invested in Bitcoin in the pension fund portfolio in December 2020 when the price was $22,779. Additionally, he holds a 5% stake in a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in his global long-only equity portfolio.
Wood emphasized that he does not intend to actively trade these positions, particularly in the pension fund portfolio.
For those with a more tactical focus, or owning Bitcoin on leverage, GREED & fear’s view is that $150,000 is a good price level to start taking some profits since GREED & fear’s base case is that Bitcoin will rally three times in this post-halving cycle since the trend has been for the capital gains on holding Bitcoin to more than halve following each halving cycle,” Wood expressed his views in his weekly note — GREED & fear.
Wood’s strong belief in the potential of Bitcoin, holding onto it despite current market conditions, is supported by the anticipation of a price surge to $150,000.
This optimism is based on the expectation that the new administration under President-elect Donald Trump will implement more favorable regulatory policies towards cryptocurrencies, as indicated by potential changes at the SEC.
“It is also worth noting that Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of Trump’s transition team as well as Trump’s pick to be Commerce Secretary, is also a champion of Bitcoin and crypto. It is also the case that Lutnick is chief executive officer of Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, which is one of the major custodians of the crypto world’s major stablecoin Tether in terms of where the latter deposits its dollars,” Wood wrote.Bitcoin has experienced significant growth over the past year, increasing by 164% from around $37,000 to nearly $98,300. This growth comes despite the cryptocurrency undergoing a halving in April 2024.
Bitcoin’s ups and downs
Historically, Bitcoin has seen substantial gains following previous halvings. After the first halving on 28 November 2012, Bitcoin’s value soared by approximately 90 times within the following 12 months. The second halving, which took place on 9 July 2016, resulted in a 30-fold increase in value over the next 18 months.
Following the third halving on 11 May 2020, Bitcoin’s value surged by 7.5 times within 11 months, reaching a peak in April 2021. By November 2021, Bitcoin had increased by eight times, reaching an all-time-high of $68,992. After the most recent halving on 19 April 2024, Bitcoin has continued to rise by 54%, reaching levels of $98,300.
Based on Coinmarketcap data, Bitcoin surged by 4% over the past 24 hours, reaching a peak of $99,314.95 during Asian trading hours. The lowest point of the day was recorded at $95,656.35. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization neared the $2 trillion threshold but was limited to $1.97 trillion for the day.
Wood’s Bitcoin advice
Bitcoin has seen a surge in value following Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, securing his position as the next President of the United States. Earlier this year, Trump expressed his support for cryptocurrency assets. His endorsement was further bolstered by the vocal backing of Elon Musk, widely regarded as a significant advocate for digital currencies on a global scale.
Even with the recent increase in price, Wood maintains that Bitcoin should not be seen as a replacement for gold. Gold has experienced significant price growth against major currencies since the beginning of 2023, including 73% against the yen, 54% against the renminbi, 50% against the euro, and 40% against the Swiss franc. Instead, Bitcoin should be considered as a digital alternative to traditional assets.
“It is becoming risky to ignore crypto for many institutional investors who have still not focused on it. This is because the Trump administration’s seeming championing of it means it is about to move into the mainstream. Still, GREED & fear does not view Bitcoin as a substitute for gold but simply as a digital alternative,” Wood wrote.
