2025 Predictions: Bitcoin, Sovereigns And Macro

There’s a new incoming administration in the U.S. that has promised a lot of changes to the status quo in 2025. Because of this, the global financial ecosystem should look very different by the end of the year. Based on plans that have already been announced, and considering the knock-on effects that they will have, we can start to paint a picture of what that future could look like, and draw some predictions of what is to come. Here are my top 5 Bitcoin and macro predictions for the year ahead for, and how they could impact markets:

Bitcoin will reach the price equivalent of 50 Oz of gold: Gold currently trades at $2,650/oz, and bitcoin trades at $106,000. At the time of writing, it takes ~40 Oz of gold to buy one bitcoin. I believe bitcoin will continue to appreciate in gold terms, and will reach a price equivalent to 50 oz of gold. At current gold prices, this would equate to a BTC price of $132,500. In other words, Bitcoin will increase in value as measured in gold, not just as measured in dollars.

I expect to see a slew of portfolio recommendations coming out of ETF issuers’ research desks and registered investment advisors, recommending a portfolio allocation for bitcoin. Not dissimilar to the one that was recently published by Blackrock. The recent report from Blackrock about bitcoin stated “investors may prefer to use it tactically to hedge against specific risks, similar to gold.”. If you are a fully allocated investor looking to rotate into a bitcoin position, you may be inclined to downsize your gold position to make room, as you’re investing the “digital” version of it.

At least one G20 country will propose a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: While everyone in the Bitcoin community is rightfully excited about the potential of the U.S. creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the geopolitical dominos have started falling, and they will continue to fall whether the U.S. pulls the trigger or not.

Countries like El Salvador and Bhutan already have bitcoin reserves, and their reserves have appreciated materially over recent years. Healthy financial reserves that are uncensorable and have no counterparty risk means more geopolitical leverage for a nation state. Others will want to replicate this success. There are several recent examples of presidential candidates running on a “Bitcoin” platform in countries like Suriname and Poland, and there’s been Bitcoin Reserves proposals already submitted in countries like Brazil and Japan. I believe at least one more G20 country will announce plans for a Bitcoin Strategic reserve during 2025.

Bitcoin Miner Crackdown: As countries begin to understand the strategic significance of stacking bitcoin, they will turn their heads into how it is produced, and will learn that underutilized or underproductive energy sources can be tapped into to generate bitcoin. In parallel, they will look at those currently mining bitcoin domestically for public private partnerships. I expect to see the creation of regulatory bodies to oversee bitcoin mining in several countries. I also expect to see some countries aggressively going after “unregistered” miners that don’t comply with their regime or rules. We saw this happen in Venezuela last year, we could see similar behaviour in other countries throughout 2025.

U.S. Dollar Stablecoin Surge: Between Circle and Tether combined, they hold approximately $136 Billion in U.S. debt today, which makes them the 18th largest holder of U.S. debt in the world. USD stablecoins can grow into very large buyers of U.S. debt at a time when the Federal Reserve is desperately looking to deleverage its balance sheet (i.e. they need to sell some of their bond holdings). And they are always looking for buyers to roll over their debt.

I expect the Trump administration to recognize this and quickly move to regulate U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins like Circle and Tether to solidify them as a sort of strategic partners that can help the U.S. drive further penetration of the U.S. dollar, and be active buyers of U.S. national debt.

This environment should allow for the market capitalization for USD-pegged stablecoins to more than double from ~$200 B today to ~$500 B by the end of 2025.

The Euro will trade below par to the USD: There are many layers to this reasoning and prediction, but let’s focus on macro and crypto drivers for now. Generally speaking, the EU is growing at a much slower rate than the U.S. in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) terms. Year to date, the EU has grown by +0.8%, whereas the U.S. has grown by +2.8%. Because of this, analysts predict that the EU will have to cut interest rates more aggressively than the U.S. Federal Reserve during 2025. This will put pressure on the Euro.

Further, looking at it from a crypto lens, the highly anticipated MiCA crypto regulatory framework will become active in the EU on December 30th 2024. While there are positives to having regulatory clarity for the industry, along with clear investor and consumer protections for users, the ruleset can be complex and expensive for a young startup to comply with. In parallel, the incoming Trump administration in the U.S. has signalled a pro-crypto shift in the U.S. regulatory bodies, and it has reinvigorated a conversation among founders in the space to relocate back to the U.S. or set up operations in the country. This could draw future innovation and investment from Europe in the crypto sector, adding to further weakness in the Euro.

While the Euro has traded above the U.S. dollar over the last 20 years or so, I would not be surprised to see another multi-year period where it trades below the U.S. dollar.

That’s my top 5 for 2025. We’ll keep an eye on markets and I’ll be back next December to see how we did!