Benjamin Cowen is saying that the price action of Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror that of the Nasdaq exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco QQQ during the first 13 months that followed its launch about 26 years ago.
In a new video, Cowen tells his 855,000 YouTube subscribers that the QQQ ETF hit a local top after going up by 150% in roughly one year following the launch of the ETF.
The QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial firms listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
As the flagship digital asset approaches the first anniversary since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Cowen says the crypto king could replicate similar price action, though it’s unlikely to “play out the exact same way.”
“In 1999 the QQQ ETF launched in March and it rallied from around $48 to $120. And that Rally from $48 to $120 took about 54 weeks – $48 to $120…
…if you look at Bitcoin’s ETF, it launched at around $48,000… if you look at the launch of the spot ETF for Bitcoin it wicked up to $48,000 instead of down to it like it did with the QQQ [ETF]. But interestingly enough, 54 weeks later is January 20th – Inauguration Day [of President-elect Donald Trump], which is interesting because 54 weeks after this launch of the QQQ, it was 54 weeks later the QQQ went from like $48 to $120.
Now look at this, if you go to Bitcoin on the daily time frame and you connect these highs here [$99,600, $104,100 and $108,200] and you just extend that out what’s fascinating is if you grab the sort of a price label and you go over to January 20th and go up to this trend line it would put you at $120,000 which is exactly what the QQQ did – it went from $48 to $120, 54 weeks later.”
Cowen says that if Bitcoin’s price action closely follows that of the QQQ ETF in the first 13 months of its existence, a 48% drop is a possibility.
“Obviously this is very dubious and obviously, we know that QQQ got a large drop after that…
…what I would be interested in is if Bitcoin finds itself at $120,000 at some point in a few weeks, what is the reaction there? And one potential outcome… basically what happened with the QQQ is after it hit $120, it had a large drop down to $63, which is a pretty big drop.”
Bitcoin is trading at $101,484 at time of writing.
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