- Standard Chartered warned that Bitcoin could drop if Trump doesn’t quickly enact pro-crypto policies.
- The analysts see prices as low as $80,000.
- Cryptocurrencies have been in a volatile swing since the Federal Reserve hinted at a hawkish 2025.
All eyes are on January 20.
That’s the day Donald Trump takes office, and if he doesn’t quickly deliver on his campaign’s crypto-friendly promises, it could send Bitcoin plummeting, Standard Chartered warned.
Expectations have been riding high on the major shift in crypto policies that Trump has promised. He has said he will make the US the “crypto capital of the world.”
But there’s a risk that Trump doesn’t deliver on day one.
“Investors need to be aware of risks in case of disappointment,” the bank’s analysts said.
Standard Chartered’s advice comes as Bitcoin teeters near $90,000. The asset has been wobbly since the Federal Reserve hinted at a hawkish 2025 during the central bank’s December meeting.
A “clean break” below this price tag could spark a trip towards $80,000, the bank said. If that happens, analysts foresee daily outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to top $1 billion, and a contagion effect across the cryptocurrency market.
Until now, the biggest daily Bitcoin ETF outflow is $583 million.
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Risk of pain
Warning signs are looming.
Since the US election, spot ETF purchases and buys from Bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy are at breakeven, with most sales in the past days actually occurring at a loss.
Roughly 14% of all Bitcoin is held underwater, and 50% to 70% of recent sales have been at a loss, according to on-chain data cited by Standard Chartered.
“The risk of pain is building,” said the analysts.
Target still in sight
Many analysts have set lofty six-figure targets for Bitcoin in 2025.
Standard Chartered predicts $200,000 per coin, while pundits like Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes foresee $250,000 this year.
While the road will be bumpy, the bank still laid out its strategy.
“Once such a retracement runs its course, we would recommend accumulating again.”
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is up 2.5% over the past 24 hours to trade at $99,702.
- Ethereum is up 4.5% to trade at $3,383.
What we’re reading
Pedro Solimano is a Markets Correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.
