With Bitcoin recently setting a new all-time high in 2025, fresh discussions have emerged regarding when the ultimate market top for this cycle will occur.
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez recently cited Bitcoin’s historical performance following halvings to presents insights into the next cycle peak.
In particular, Martinez pointed to a window of 90 to 250 days for a potential ultimate price peak. This observation comes as Bitcoin is currently 276 days into its most recent halving cycle.
Bitcoin Consistent Trends with Past Cycles
In previous halving cycles, Bitcoin reached market tops well after the halving events. During the 2012–2016 cycle, the market top arrived 367 days post-halving. Meanwhile, the 2016–2020 cycle saw an extended period, with the peak occurring 527 days after the halving.
As of now, it’s been 276 days since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving. Interestingly, Bitcoin broke its previous cycle peak price before the latest halving occurred and has continued to trade in a price discovery phase. On January 20, 2025, Bitcoin set a fresh peak at $109,114, though it is currently 4% below that price.
Martinez suggests that if history repeats itself, the market could see an ultimate peak for Bitcoin within the next 90 to 250 days. This projection aligns with a top around mid to late 2025.
Also, this timeline would follow the pattern of prior cycles, where significant price surges occurred approximately one to one-and-a-half years post-halving. Essentially, the market is drawing closer to the end of the bull cycle that commenced in late 2023.
Bitcoin Price at Market Top
In this analysis, Martinez did not specify how high Bitcoin could reach by that time. However, in previous assessments, he has projected a high of $276,400, citing a cup-and-handle pattern.
These expectations align with those of veteran investor Mags, who recommended a 500-day Bitcoin strategy based on historical trends.
Specifically, he advised entering the market 500 days before a halving event to buy at lower prices, holding through market volatility, and selling around 500 days after the halving, when the market tends to overheat.
This strategy aims to maximize gains while avoiding bear market downturns. For the current cycle, Mags predicts Bitcoin could reach $220,000 by September 1, 2025, which is 500 days after the April 2024 halving.
Meanwhile, some other market commentators have argued that Bitcoin may not align with previous cycles, especially given the stronger institutional appeal for the asset in the present cycle compared to prior seasons.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
