Bitcoin is still on track to hit a price of $1.5 million by 2030.
If you’re interested in where crypto could be headed in 2025, then the new “Big Ideas 2025” report from Ark Invest is a must-read. It lays out what could be coming next for cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, and smart contract blockchain networks.
But the really incredible news involves Bitcoin (BTC -1.27%). As Cathie Wood of Ark Invest points out in the report, Bitcoin is still on track to hit a price target of $1.5 million by 2030. If she’s right, investing in Bitcoin now could be one of the best possible moves you could make for your crypto portfolio.
Bitcoin’s growth trajectory
Right now, Bitcoin appears to be firing on all cylinders. Hitting a price of $100,000 last year was a landmark event not just for Bitcoin, but also for the entire crypto industry. That’s because Bitcoin accounts for a staggering 60% of the crypto market’s total value. So if Bitcoin is headed higher, it’s taking the entire crypto industry with it.
There are several key factors sending Bitcoin higher. One factor, of course, is Bitcoin’s continued integration into the global financial system. Just the fact that the U.S. government is now seriously contemplating the formation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve tells you all you need to know.
Another factor involves the sound fundamentals of the Bitcoin blockchain. By just about any metric, Bitcoin continues to shine. Daily transaction volume, for example, is now at record levels. The total hash rate (which measures how much computing power is being used) is at an all-time high. And the number of investors who have held their Bitcoin for more than three years is at record levels, too.
Bitcoin also has been the beneficiary of growing institutional adoption. It has become an asset class of its own, and has become a favorite of hedge fund managers and institutional investors looking for crypto exposure. As a result of the success of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs, the percentage of a portfolio that these investors are willing to allocate to Bitcoin continues to increase.
Bitcoin’s path to $1.5 million
After detailing all the accomplishments of Bitcoin in 2024, Cathie Wood delivers the big news: Bitcoin is still on pace to hit a price of $1.5 million by 2030. To make that a reality, Bitcoin must grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58% for the next few years.
For most assets, that type of CAGR would be unthinkable. But not for Bitcoin. Consider that Bitcoin delivered returns of 122% last year, after delivering returns of 150% in 2023. If anything, a CAGR of 58% might be underestimating Bitcoin’s growth trajectory over the next several years.
Image source: Getty Images.
That being said, it’s worth exploring some of the key assumptions that went into the $1.5 million price prediction. Unlike the typical pie-in-the-sky crypto price prediction, Ark Invest’s prediction is actually grounded in some key assumptions about what is happening within the global economy.
So, for example, getting to a price of $1.5 million will require institutional investors to allocate 6.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. It will require Bitcoin to hit a market cap equivalent to 60% of gold’s total market value. It will require Bitcoin to account for 10% of the corporate treasury holdings of publicly traded companies. And it will need nation-state treasuries to allocate 7% of their non-gold holdings to Bitcoin.
Stress-testing Ark Invest’s assumptions
Until 2024, those types of numbers would have sounded outlandish. But then came the spot Bitcoin ETFs last January. As a result, some institutional investors are now steadily ratcheting up their allocations to Bitcoin. Getting to a 6.5% allocation from a current level of 1%-2% is possible, but it will likely require Bitcoin to continue churning out phenomenal returns on an annual basis.
Currently, only a small group of publicly traded companies holds Bitcoin on the balance sheet. But the recent success of MicroStrategy transforming itself into a Bitcoin treasury company has created an entirely new narrative around holding Bitcoin. And a new SEC accounting rule that was just implemented under the Trump administration will make it even more attractive for some companies to hold Bitcoin.
Or what about the assumption that nation-state treasuries will begin to hold Bitcoin? That, too, might have been unthinkable just 12 months ago. But the U.S. has already started the process of creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and other nations are beginning to follow suit. Some are even speculating that the U.S. might kick off a “Bitcoin arms race” with nations around the world.
Bitcoin’s five-year outlook
Putting all this together, the long-term future looks bright indeed for Bitcoin. Getting to a price target of $1.5 million by 2030 will be challenging, but it’s certainly within reach, especially given the current pro-crypto approach of the Trump administration.
Whether it reaches Cathie Wood’s specific price targets on schedule or not, this digital asset looks like a long-term winner. As long as institutional investors keep buying Bitcoin, and as long as the U.S. continues to move forward with the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the price of Bitcoin seemingly has nowhere to go but up.
