- Bitcoin’s mid-bull pullback has analysts like Chris Burniske drawing parallels to 2021, hinting at the potential for a new all-time high in late 2025.
- Key indicators, including the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio and realized price at $96,000, suggest the market may be exiting an overheated phase.
- Defending the $96,000 support level is critical; holding steady could reignite bullish momentum, while a drop below may lead to panic selling.
As Bitcoin persists in its sideways action amid high volatility, market watchers ponder whether the coin is headed toward a cycle top or a healthy bull pullback halfway through its bull run. While some bears point to stagnation as exhaustion, others view it as a simple pause before another bull run leg.
Chris Burniske, a former Ark Invest crypto executive and current-day venture partner at Placeholder, joined in with an optimistic outlook, believing current-day trends follow the “mid-bull pullback” seen in early 2021 when Bitcoin’s price plunged from $64,000 to $30,000 and then increased to an all-time high of $69,000 in a subsequent portion of that same year. In a statement recently, Burniske noted:
“I don’t think this is a sign of cycle top, but rather a mid-bull pullback that makes everyone question god. Feels a lot more like April, May, June of 2021 to me, where things fell 50-80% depending on the coin, many said it was over, top-callers gloated, and then we ripped in 2H ’21.”
If history repeats, Bitcoin can be prepared for another blowout run in the second half of 2025.”
To support Burniske’s theory is the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV ratio, a metric that evaluates the average profitability of short-term Bitcoin holders. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler recently pointed out that the STH MVRV has dropped from an overheated level of 1.35 to neutral territory, suggesting the market is exiting a local overheated phase. Adler explained:
“An STH MVRV above 1.30–1.35 typically signals an overheated market, often leading to sell-offs. The decline in the indicator suggests that a portion of STHs have exited their positions. A return to average levels points to the end of a local overheated phase.”
Additionally, Adler highlighted the importance of short-term holder realized price (STH RP), currently at $96,000. That is the mean buying price for Bitcoin purchased in the past 1-3 months, and it will act as a significant level of support or resistance.
Bitcoin’s Next Move at $96,000 Support
A dip below $96,000 will cause short-term investors to panic and sell, but a successful holding at this price will rekindle bullish momentum.”
Bitcoin’s price recently tested levels at $97,000 after dropping sharply to $91,000 on Feb. 3. The cryptocurrency has traded above this critical support level for the past four trading days and has created optimism among bulls. However, the broader market remains cautious as global macroeconomic factors, including policy announcements by former U.S. President Donald Trump, significantly influence sentiment.
Adding to the uncertainty is the decrease in Bitcoin network activity, which has reached annual lows. According to Adler, such a development could mean overvaluation, and Bitcoin will have to reprice down first in a bid to build strong ground. A deeper retracement down to range lows could present new buying opportunities for long-term investors.
The current Bitcoin market environment is a classic tale of two schools of thinking with contrasting approaches. Some view current price plateaus and diminished network activity as a sign of a likely top, but others, including Burniske and Adler, view the market as simply resting between rallies.
As Bitcoin stands at its $96,000 mark, investors and traders alike ask themselves if it’s a repeat of 2021 for Bitcoin and a rise to new all-time high—or if, for a change, things are going to unfold differently. For now, all wait and watch, with every sign and price action under a microscope for clues on what’s next to happen.
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