Consumer confidence declined sharply in February as more Americans felt uneasy about the future state of the US economy, according to new data released Tuesday morning.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February came in at a reading of 98.3, a significant drop from January’s revised 105 reading and short of the 102.5 reading expected by economists.
“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month-on-month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.”
The “Present Situation Index,” which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell to 136.5 in February from 139 in January.
The “Expectations Index,” which tracks consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, also fell to 72.9 in February from 82 last month. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year. This was the first time since June 2024 that the index came in below that threshold.
Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations jumped from 5.2% last month to 6% in February.
“This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said. “References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics.”
“There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
