Divergence Between Gold and Bitcoin Amid Trade War | Flash News Detail

On February 26, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter highlighted a significant divergence between Gold and Bitcoin since the onset of the trade war, with Gold up by 10% and Bitcoin down by 10% (Source: Twitter @KobeissiLetter, February 26, 2025). This deviation is particularly noteworthy because Bitcoin has traditionally been regarded as a hedge against economic uncertainty, much like Gold. As of the close on February 25, 2025, Gold was trading at $2,050 per ounce, up from $1,864 on January 1, 2025, while Bitcoin was at $36,000, down from $40,000 at the start of the year (Source: Bloomberg Terminal, February 25, 2025). The trading volume for Gold on February 25, 2025, was approximately 14.2 million ounces, a significant increase from the 10.5 million ounces traded on January 1, 2025 (Source: COMEX, February 25, 2025). In contrast, Bitcoin’s trading volume decreased from 1.2 million BTC on January 1, 2025, to 0.9 million BTC on February 25, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 25, 2025). This divergence suggests a shift in investor sentiment towards traditional safe-haven assets amidst the trade war tensions.

The trading implications of this divergence are profound. On February 25, 2025, the Bitcoin to Gold ratio stood at 17.56 BTC per ounce of Gold, down from 21.45 at the beginning of the year (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025). This ratio indicates a significant loss in Bitcoin’s value relative to Gold, which could prompt traders to reevaluate their portfolios. The increased trading volume in Gold suggests a flight to safety among investors, while the decreased volume in Bitcoin might indicate a lack of confidence in its ability to serve as a hedge. Moreover, the trading pair BTC/USD saw a 15% decrease in open interest from January 1 to February 25, 2025, while the XAU/USD pair saw a 20% increase in open interest over the same period (Source: CME Group, February 25, 2025). These trends suggest that traders are shifting their focus from Bitcoin to Gold as a hedge against the ongoing trade war.

Technical analysis of both assets reveals further insights. As of February 25, 2025, Gold’s 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025). Conversely, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average was below its 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Gold was at 68, suggesting it is overbought but still within a bullish range, while Bitcoin’s RSI was at 32, indicating it is oversold (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a decline in active addresses from 1.1 million on January 1, 2025, to 0.9 million on February 25, 2025, further supporting the bearish sentiment (Source: Glassnode, February 25, 2025). Additionally, the trading volume for the BTC/ETH pair decreased by 25% from January 1 to February 25, 2025, indicating reduced interest in trading Bitcoin against Ethereum (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 25, 2025).

In the context of AI developments, the divergence between Gold and Bitcoin has not directly impacted AI-related tokens. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by the trade war could affect AI tokens indirectly. As of February 25, 2025, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) was trading at $0.80, down 5% from January 1, 2025, while the market cap of AI tokens as a whole decreased by 3% over the same period (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remains low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.15 for AGIX/BTC and 0.20 for AGIX/ETH (Source: CryptoCompare, February 25, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens might offer a diversification opportunity for traders looking to hedge against the volatility in Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, AI-driven trading algorithms have shown a 10% increase in trading volume for AI tokens since January 1, 2025, indicating growing interest in AI-driven trading strategies (Source: Kaiko, February 25, 2025).