Majorana 1, the first quantum chip powered by a Topological Core based on a revolutionary new class … [+]
In a previous article I wrote only about two months ago, I took a hard look at the looming threat quantum computing poses to bitcoin and cryptography at large. The conclusion then was cautious. Although quantum algorithms can theoretically crack the elliptic-curve and RSA cryptography that secures everything from bitcoin wallets to bank logins, the hardware needed was still far beyond what exists.
Any quantum computer capable of breaking bitcoin’s elliptic curve (ECDSA) or even undermining SHA-256 hashing was presumed to be at least a decade away. Modern quantum processors can incorporate few hundred qubits, falling far short of that mark.
One estimate from a 2022 study suggested that breaking bitcoin’s 256-bit elliptic curve within a practical timeframe would require roughly 2,800 perfect logical qubits, which in practice means on the order of millions of physical qubits once error-correction overhead is included.
Another analysis concluded that bitcoin’s cryptography remains secure until we see quantum machines ten thousand times more powerful than today’s quantum computers.
Until now, the consensus has been that the sky isn’t falling yet, but we should keep an eye on quantum progress. Enter a quantum computing breakthrough: Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip.
Majorana 1: A Quantum Leap?
Unveiled in February 2025, Majorana 1 is being hailed as the world’s first quantum processing unit built on what Microsoft calls a “Topological Core” architecture. In plainer terms, it’s a prototype quantum chip (currently with only 8 qubits) that leverages exotic “Majorana particles” to encode qubits in a more stable form.
Microsoft’s researchers engineered what they term a “topoconductor” – essentially a special superconductor that can host and manipulate Majorana quasi-particles – to serve as the foundation of this chip. The goal of this design is to stabilize qubits to be robust against noise and decoherence using the topological properties of the Majorana states.
It’s alright if those details went over your head – they went over mine, too. But what it means is that keeping qubits stable, which is one of the biggest hurdles in quantum computing, has been partially solved. Qubits are generally fragile and quick to lose their quantum state or introduce errors unless corrected by many redundant qubits.
Microsoft claims that, by embedding the essential data-carrying features into a topologically protected state (the Majorana mode), the qubits become less error-prone. In theory, that means far fewer physical qubits would be needed per logical qubit, paving a path to developing powerful quantum computers.
Microsoft’s bold projection is that this architecture can scale to one million qubits on a single chip that fits in the palm of your hand. For context, quantum chips today typically max out at a few hundred qubits (IBM’s record-setting “Condor” processor has 1,121 qubits, unveiled in 2023). Microsoft’s Majorana 1, as noted, has just 8 qubits operational right now. But the promise lies in the new architecture. If each qubit is far more stable, scaling up isn’t just a linear chip-fabrication challenge, but something that could follow the footsteps of classical transistor scaling. As one Microsoft engineer put it, they essentially set out to invent “the transistor for the quantum age,” and possibly trigger a Moore’s Law or its equivalent for a new era of computing.
Accelerating the Quantum Timeline
In unveiling Majorana 1, Microsoft stated it expects quantum machines capable of solving “meaningful, industrial-scale problems” in years, not decades, essentially suggesting that the quantum future might arrive by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
In light of Microsoft’s optimism, industry experts have been revising their forecasts. For example, analyst Jack Gold noted that practical quantum computers for enterprise use are still years away, but probably fewer than 20. In fact, he suggested that in “five to 10 years, we will have useful quantum computers,” acknowledging that we “already have a few really small ones” today.
Google’s Willow project showcased a 105-qubit chip with scalable error-correction only two months ago. Could this be the beginning of a compounding return on investment in quantum technology? And does that mean a real threat to cryptography is imminent?
If Majorana 1’s approach truly allows scaling to millions of qubits, one could envision a quantum computer capable of running Shor’s algorithm against 256-bit ECDSA within a decade of aggressive development. That’s a huge if – going from an 8-qubit prototype to a million-qubit workhorse is not trivial – but it’s no longer inconceivable. The comfortable time buffer we thought we had might need to be re-evaluated. At the very least, the risk window for quantum threats is shrinking. It could be 10 to 15 years, or even smaller, depending on how these breakthroughs pan out.
Bitcoin’s Resilience and Preparing for a Quantum-Safe Future
What does all this mean for bitcoin? The good news is bitcoin’s protocol can (and likely will) adapt long before quantum computers become a practical threat. The bitcoin developer community is very much aware of this issue. Bitcoin is open source, and the community of people who contribute to its code base have already begun research into quantum-resistant cryptography for bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s primary vulnerability to quantum attacks lies in its digital signature scheme. The protocol currently uses ECDSA (and, with the Taproot upgrade, Schnorr signatures) to secure transactions. If a quantum computer could efficiently derive the private key from a given public key – which Shor’s algorithm would allow on a sufficiently powerful quantum machine – an attacker could forge signatures and thus steal coins from any wallet where the public key is known.
Bitcoin’s design does offer some breathing room. Most bitcoin addresses are hashed (your “address” is not the raw public key, but a hash of it), so public keys aren’t revealed on the blockchain until you actually spend from that address.
This means users who follow best practices, including not reusing addresses, keep their public keys hidden until the moment of transaction, giving an attacker only a very brief window to target a key during the time a transaction is being confirmed. Still, that’s not a long-term security plan. Once quantum computers reach a certain size, even that brief window could be enough for an attacker.
To truly secure bitcoin in a post-quantum world, the solution is straightforward in concept: upgrade the cryptography. There are quantum-resistant digital signature schemes already developed and being standardized. Lattice-based signatures like CRYSTALS-Dilithium and hash-based signatures such as Lamport one-time signatures are two examples.
Transitioning the entire network to new cryptography would be a significant undertaking, but not an impossible one. Bitcoin has undergone major upgrades before. The SegWit soft fork in 2017 and the Taproot activation in 2021 (which introduced Schnorr signatures) were achieved through a process of community consensus and phased rollout. A switch to quantum-safe signatures could be implemented in a similar manner.
Of course, there are challenges to overcome. One oft-cited concern is what to do about inactive or un-migrated coins. Satoshi Nakamoto’s famous stash of ~1 million bitcoins, and other long-dormant addresses whose private keys might be lost, are still secured by the old ECDSA keys. If a powerful quantum computer came online, those coins would be immediately stolen, since their public keys are either known from past transactions or, in the case of very old coins like Satoshi’s, were never hashed at all in early bitcoin and thus are already exposed. The result for the network would be a one-time inflationary event when lost coins are moved to post-quantum addresses and become usable again.
Beyond Bitcoin: Implications for Secure Computing and Encryption
Any breakthrough that puts bitcoin at risk also threatens many other applications of cryptography. The same algorithms that secure the Bitcoin Network are used to protect our web traffic (TLS/SSL), secure banking and financial transactions, and safeguard government and military communications.
If a quantum computer can crack bitcoin’s keys, it can just as easily break the encryption of your bank’s servers or the authentication keys used in secure messaging. As one observer on a Bitcoin forum aptly quipped, the implications of breaking popular crypto systems go far beyond bitcoin.
This is why governments and industry bodies have been actively preparing for the post-quantum era. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), for example, has been running a multi-year project to standardize post-quantum cryptography. They’ve already chosen several new algorithms to replace RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography, and they are urging organizations to begin the transition now. In fact, NIST has set an official timeline. By 2030, legacy algorithms like RSA, ECDSA, and Diffie-Hellman should be deprecated, and by 2035 they will be disallowed entirely.
This timeline acknowledges the growing quantum threat – and indeed, some analysts predict that state actors could have working quantum decryption capabilities as early as 2028. Whether or not such aggressive predictions pan out, the prudent approach for anyone relying on encryption is clear: assume that by the early 2030s, today’s public-key algorithms might no longer be safe, and plan your security roadmaps accordingly.
When Might Bitcoin Need a Quantum Upgrade?
Speculating on timelines is always tricky, but let’s take an educated guess at when bitcoin’s protocol might have to be hardened against quantum attacks. If we take Microsoft’s “years, not decades” proclamation at face value and factor in the similarly optimistic signals from other quantum players, the late 2020s could usher in quantum computers of unprecedented power. However, “solving industrial-scale problems” is not the same as cracking cryptography; the former might be things like simulating complex molecules or optimizing large-scale systems. These are tasks that might be achieved with tens of thousands of high-quality qubits. Breaking strong encryption likely sits at the more demanding end of the spectrum, possibly requiring millions of qubits or at least a few thousand very reliable logical qubits, as noted earlier.
A reasonable guess is that bitcoin’s cryptography will not be threatened within the next five years. But the 10-year horizon is when standards bodies advise that most systems must be migrated to post-quantum cryptography, which is a telling indicator of how experts see this playing out. I would not be surprised if by the early 2030s, the bitcoin community is in the final stages of implementing a protocol upgrade to swap out ECDSA/Schnorr for a quantum-resistant signature scheme. The groundwork for that would likely begin much sooner – possibly even within the next year or two – with proposals, testing, and maybe optional address formats introduced to make the transition gradual.
Timeline for upgrading bitcoin for quantum computing
One possible timeline could look like this:
- 2024–2029: Through the remainder of the 2020s, quantum labs steadily demonstrate larger qubit counts and achieve the first error-corrected logical qubits exceeding a few hundred qubits. This period lays the groundwork, but quantum machines remain just below the threshold of threatening modern cryptography.
- By ~2028: If no adversary has yet managed to break a real-world cryptographic system, we will nonetheless likely have seen enough quantum progress to warrant precautionary action. Around this time, bitcoin developers could finalize a quantum-safe signature scheme and perhaps roll it out as an option (e.g. introducing a new address type that users can opt into for quantum-safe keys).
- 2030–2031: As a precaution, most new bitcoin addresses and wallets start using quantum-resistant cryptography by default. Users with older, vulnerable address types are strongly encouraged to migrate their funds to the new addresses. This proactive migration ensures that by the time quantum computers are truly powerful, the majority of bitcoin in circulation is secured by post-quantum algorithms.
- If an earlier breakthrough occurs: Should a major quantum attack capability emerge earlier than expected, the bitcoin community can accelerate the above timeline. Having a vetted quantum-resistant upgrade plan ready means the network could respond rapidly — potentially initiating an emergency protocol upgrade — to neutralize the threat if needed.
Vigilance with a Healthy Dose of Skepticism
The advent of Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip is an exciting and significant development in the quantum computing field. It means that the quantum future — once assumed to be a distant horizon — is steadily drawing closer. The cryptographic foundations that undergird modern society have an expiration date that is increasingly clear.
However, as we ride the hype wave of each quantum announcement, it’s wise to maintain a skeptical eye. Majorana 1 is a proof-of-concept that must scale by many orders of magnitude to fulfill its promises. History has taught us that revolutionary tech often encounters growing pains. So while we celebrate this breakthrough and the potential it holds, we should not be surprised if this line of research winds up in a dead end.
Bitcoin has weathered many storms in its short life – from contentious forks to wild market swings to regulatory pressures – and it has emerged stronger each time. The quantum challenge will likely be no different. It may well be the biggest test yet, but bitcoin will likely ride the quantum wave just fine.
