Bitcoin (BTC) faces ongoing bearish catalysts as traders run to safe havens such as gold, new analysis warns.
In a dedicated X thread on March 4, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter announced a “global move” away from risk assets.
Bitcoin “no longer viewed as safe haven play”
Bitcoin and altcoins suffered as the US confirmed the start of fresh trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico, following stocks downhill.
BTC/USD fell $10,000 over a 24-hour period, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, erasing its entire relief rally amid buzz over a US strategic crypto reserve.
While details of the latter are set to be revealed at the White House Crypto Summit on March 7, Bitcoin bulls were unable to reclaim lost support levels.
For Kobeissi, the writing is on the wall.
“The real driver here is the GLOBAL move towards the risk-off trade,” it explained.
“As trade war tensions rise and economic policy uncertainty broadens, ALL risky assets are falling. This was seen in stocks, crypto and oil prices which all fell sharply today. Safe havens are thriving.”
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index finished the March 3 trading session down 1.76% and 2.64%, respectively.
Gold, by contrast, continued to consolidate gains while circling in an area immediately below all-time highs.
Kobeissi concluded that Bitcoin is “now viewed as a risky asset” in the current macroeconomic environment.
“Take a look at the sharp divergence between Gold and Bitcoin in their YTD performance,” it reasoned.
“While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st. Crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.”
Bitcoin market cap vs. Gold futures % change. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
BTC price meets bull market support trend line
Bitcoin thus joined the US dollar index (DXY) in an unusual syncopated move down, which took the former toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) — a classic bull market support line.
Related: Biggest CME gap ever at $85K: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
“Important area to watch as you rarely get these tests during a big high timeframe run. Also a key level to hold for the bulls,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of an X post on the topic.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Further remarks noted that BTC/USD had closed the biggest gap in history on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.
Previously, another gap left over from November 2024 was closed as part of Bitcoin’s descent to current multimonth lows near $78,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
