Bitcoin BTC/USD is on a steady trajectory toward $73,000, but the cryptocurrency market may need a new narrative to spark its next significant upward move, according to Markus Thielen, lead analyst at 10x Research.
What Happened: In a report released Tuesday, Thielen highlighted eerie parallels between the current market cycle and past crypto bull runs, pointing to fading retail enthusiasm and crumbling speculative narratives like meme coins as signs of an impending shift.
While Bitcoin shows resilience, the broader market—marked by sharp declines in tokens like Solana SOL/USD and Trump TRUMP/USD—suggests a structural slowdown that could stall momentum without fresh catalysts.
“Bitcoin is steadily heading toward $73,000, reinforcing the accuracy of our bearish outlook,” he writes in the report, emphasizing that this level reflects a cautious market consolidation rather than a breakout.
However, he cautions that for Bitcoin to surge beyond this point, a compelling new story—akin to the DeFi and NFT booms of 2021—must emerge.
“If history is any guide, the next major (up) move will require a new narrative,” Thielen notes, pointing to the exhaustion of the meme coin frenzy that dominated early 2025.
The report details a familiar pattern of speculative excess followed by retail capitulation, drawing comparisons to the 2021 NFT bubble and the 2017 XRP XRP/USD surge.
Also Read: Why Did Trump’s Strategic Crypto Reserve Not Include XRP?
This cycle’s meme coin mania, exemplified by the TRUMP coin’s meteoric rise and subsequent 86% collapse from $70 to $10 in under six weeks, has left retail traders reeling with billions in losses.
Solana, a key player in the meme coin ecosystem, has dropped 59% from its peak, struggling to hold support between $120 and $130.
Thielen also highlights declining activity on platforms like Pump.fun, where daily meme coin launches have fallen from 62,000 to 23,885, and monthly revenue has plunged from $146 million to $67 million.
What’s Next: Beyond price action, Thielen stresses the importance of underlying market health, noting significant revenue declines across major networks.
Solana briefly outpaced Ethereum ETH/USD in February revenue, but both have since weakened, with Ethereum’s monthly earnings dropping 90% from a 2021 peak of $1.6 billion to an average of $166 million in 2024.
These trends, coupled with microstructural inefficiencies and fading retail momentum, signal a market at a crossroads.
“This structural decline indicates a weakening foundation, making now a time for caution—not complacency,” Thielen writes.
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