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As gold shatters its historical records by nearing $3,000 an ounce, bitcoin wavers. The Bitcoin/gold ratio, a symbolic pillar for twelve years, has just broken its upward trend. An alarming signal for crypto enthusiasts? Between geopolitical tensions, aggressive trade policies, and contrasting ETF flows, the financial landscape fractures. Is the reign of “digital gold” threatened by the renewed luster of the precious metal?
Bitcoin/gold: the break of a symbolic pillar
March 14, 2024, will remain a pivotal date. The Bitcoin/gold ratio has broken its upward support line, intact since 2012. A technical fracture heavy with meaning: bitcoin loses its status as a safe haven against gold, at least temporarily.
For NorthStar, a reputed analyst, this break evokes the fractal from March 2021 to March 2022, a period when BTC fell by 60%. Is a nightmarish scenario looming below $65,000 ?
With supporting charts, the trend is indisputable. The ratio collapses while gold soars, fueled by renewed appetite from central banks and institutional investors.
China, the United States, and the United Kingdom are massively stockpiling the yellow metal, anticipating a turbulent economic climate. Bitcoin, on the other hand, seems trapped between speculation and distrust.
This break questions the very narrative of BTC as “digital gold.” While the two assets have long been compared, their trajectories diverge sharply. Gold embodies caution, while bitcoin embodies boldness. But in a world where Donald Trump reignites the trade war, boldness could be costly.
ETFs: the capital exodus, symptom of structural distrust
The figures speak for themselves. Gold ETFs have siphoned $23.18 billion in global inflows since January 2025, boosted by record American demand (+$6.48 billion).
At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have suffered a net outflow of $1.46 billion. A striking contrast, revealing a bipolar market sentiment.
Why this exodus? Trumpist policies are stirring the pot. Tariffs against China and Mexico have awakened the ghosts of 2018, fueling fears of inflation and recession.
As a result, investors are fleeing volatile assets to shelter in gold, whose physical reserves provide reassurance. Bitcoin, perceived as a speculative bet, is paying the price for its lack of maturity.
Worse, BTC’s liquidity has become its Achilles’ heel. Massive ETF outflows create a snowball effect: less capital = less stability. Glassnode also notes that new investors have already lost $100 million in six weeks, panicked by repeated corrections. A vicious circle that painfully recalls past crashes.
The break of the Bitcoin/gold ratio and the hemorrhage of ETFs sketch a bleak picture, but not an irreversible one. Bitcoin has survived far more severe crises. Its volatility, a true double-edged sword, could just as easily propel it to new heights. Moreover, so far, Bitcoin ETFs retain 95% of their assets.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
