This week, Trump announced his plans to implement wide-ranging tariffs on all imports into the United States. The move sent the stock market into a free fall, with Apple among many companies down over 10% for the week.
While the world prepares for the full impact of this move, here’s what I think is some straightforward advice for iPhone buyers.
Trump’s tariffs
On April 5, a 10% “baseline” tariff will kick in on all imports into the United States. On April 9, the tariffs that Trump has falsely labeled as “reciprocal” will kick in. This is where things get especially bleak. Imports from China, where Apple manufacturers the vast majority of iPhones and Macs, will be hit with a 54% tariff. Imports from India, which is responsible for 10-15% of iPhone assembly, will face a 27% tariff. Imports from Vietnam, where Apple makes various models of AirPods, iPad, and Apple Watch, will face a 46% tariff.
If those numbers sound insane, it’s because they are insane. The math behind how Trump’s “economists” calculated the numbers is completely nonsensical. Nonetheless, this is where we find ourselves at this moment in history.
The immediate possibility is that existing iPhones get more expensive in the coming weeks. I don’t see a world in which Apple is willing to eat the cost of these tariffs. Economists agree. The biggest unknown at this point is how much inventory Apple has in the United States. Tim Cook is known for his expert supply chain management skills, so I’m willing to bet that Apple has been importing products into the United States at a much faster rate than usual recently in preparation for these tariffs.
This could delay the impact of tariffs on some Apple products, but that reprieve would be temporary. For this reason: if you need an iPhone now, or even think you might soon, buy it now. Every day you wait, you’re gambling that an iPhone won’t suddenly cost hundreds more overnight.
Speaking to The Verge, Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said: “If you’re looking at a laptop that’s assembled in China, and you’re wondering whether to buy now or wait until the fall, I would buy now.”
What about the iPhone 17?
Apple is likely to announce the iPhone 17 lineup in September. It’s rumored to be the biggest update to the iPhone lineup in years, including a new design language, better performance, camera upgrades, and more. There’s also the rumored iPhone 17 Air, which will be Apple’s thinnest iPhone ever, measuring just 5.5mm at its thinnest point.
In general, I advise people to buy an iPhone when they need one, regardless of what time of the year it is. For people that are teetering on the edge of needing a new iPhone but have more flexibility, I tell people to try and hold out for that year’s new iPhone once we hit the June-July timeframe.
This year, my advice is shaping up to be different. I think that if you think you’ll need a new iPhone anytime within the next six months, now is the time to buy. Sure, you might miss out on the bells and whistles of the new iPhone 17 coming this fall, but you’ll pay a lot less than someone buying an iPhone a few weeks from now.
Wrap up
If I was a betting man, I’d wager that Apple will announce price increases several days before they’re set to go into effect with the hope of pressuring Trump to back down, or at the very least carve out exemptions for Apple like he did during his first term. It’s a risky strategy that could backfire, but we do know that Tim Cook has historically been the best in the business at manipulating Trump.
But based on what we know right now, here’s what to expect:
- The iPhones sold today (iPhone 15, iPhone 16) will get more expensive sooner rather than later.
- The iPhone 17 lineup coming later this fall will be more expensive. Waiting for the iPhone 17 might cost you a lot more than just new features.
This advice also extends to the Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods. Realistically, the advice also applies to just about any product made by any company, but we focus on Apple here at 9to5Mac.
My favorite iPhone accessories:
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