Certain experts are penciling in a strong rebound for bitcoin heading into summer, after a tough few months for the flagship cryptocurrency.
According to analysis of bitcoin’s historic price patterns by economist Timothy Peterson on his X, formerly Twitter, account @nsquaredvalue, the currency will escape from its current lull in April, continuing to recover value through May to reach $126,000 by June 1.
Why It Matters
Despite hopes that the January 20 inauguration of President Donald Trump—who had campaigned on promises to enact industry-friendly policies once in office—would usher in a boom for cryptocurrency, bitcoin and other major tokens have lost significant value since the beginning of his administration.
However, mounting fears over a U.S. recession have led some to speculate that bitcoin, like gold, could serve as a safe-haven asset should an extended economic downturn hit the country in the near-future. Others, meanwhile, believe a recession could put further downward pressure on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
What To Know
According to Peterson on X, his price forecast is based on bitcoin’s historical bull runs having taken place in April and October.
Bitcoin gained around 12 percent in October 2024, before undergoing an unprecedented postelection rally to reach an all-time high of $109,115 on January 20, per CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at around $83,500, having fallen more than 23 percent since the inauguration. Last week, the token fell below $80,000 for the first time since November.
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Trump has followed through on some of his rhetorical commitments to bitcoin since reentering office. The president appointed David Sacks, a prominent figure in the crypto space, to be the first-ever “White House AI & Crypto Czar,” and hosted the first White House crypto summit on March 7.
After establishing a Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to look into the possibility, on March 6 the president announced that the U.S. government would begin building up its own “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile;” the latter will likely be made up of Ethereum, as well as other tokens previously mentioned by Trump.
However, this did not translate into a significant price increase, as some had hoped; it was revealed that the strategic reserve would be replenished solely with bitcoin obtained in criminal and civil forfeiture cases, rather than the government purchasing large quantities of the cryptocurrency.
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While Peterson is optimistic for a bitcoin comeback, others believe its decline is not yet over and that the currency could soon sink into a bear market. Stockbroker and financial commentator Peter Schiff said he based this forecast on the currency’s historic correlation with wider stock-market shifts.
Peterson himself said previously that his “Lowest Price Forward” metric implied a 5 percent possibility that bitcoin could slip below $69,000.
What People Are Saying
Economist and bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson said via X: “Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range. Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.”
Stockbroker Peter Schiff, in an article published on ChainCatcher on Monday, wrote: “The Nasdaq index has currently fallen by 12 percent. If this adjustment evolves into a bear market, and the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin remains unchanged … then when the Nasdaq’s decline expands to 20%, the price of Bitcoin may still hold around $65,000. However, if the Nasdaq enters a true bear market, the decline could far exceed 20%.
“Overall, if this stock market crash resembles historical trends, gold may become the ultimate safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin’s market positioning will face severe challenges,” Schiff added.
What Happens Next?
Other events could still weigh on bitcoin’s future gains, and scupper hopes of a strong recovery, including an economic downturn and rising inflation. Despite a stronger-than-anticipated consumer price index (CPI) reading last week, and other data suggesting a significant slowdown in inflation, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has speculated that “nationalistic” policies such as tariffs and deportations could reverse this course.
“I think if we all are becoming a little more nationalistic—and I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, you know, it does resonate with me—that it’s going to have elevated inflation,” Fink said at a recent conference, as reported by Reuters.
