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Investors are looking ahead to
Apple
iPhone 13.
It’s only been a few months since the arrival of the iPhone 12 lineup, the first Apple (ticker: AAPL) phones designed for 5G wireless networks. But Apple has a long history of annual updates to the iPhone. Aside from last year’s slightly delayed launch, Apple has announced new phones every September since 2012. And the speculation on what to expect is beginning to unfold.
Wedbush analyst
Dan Ives
this morning writes that the initial Apple supply-chain orders for the iPhone 13 are in the 100 million-unit range—which he says compares with an initial build of 80 million iPhone 12 units. “While this number will clearly move around over the coming months, we believe this speaks to an increased confidence with [CEO Tim] Cook & Co. that this 5G-driven product cycle will extend well into 2022 and should also benefit from a post-vaccine consumer-reopening environment,” he writes.
Ives says he has “increased confidence” that iPhone 13 will have a 1-terabyte storage option, double the highest storage capacity in current models. He says the new phones will include “a number of enhancements,” including Lidar across all iPhone 13 models.
Meanwhile, Ives continues to think Street consensus iPhone forecasts for the September 2021 fiscal year are too conservative, at around 220 million units. He says that the company still has the potential to reach 240 million to even 250 million units—and notes that Apple could be on track to beat its best ever year for iPhone units, the 231 million sold in fiscal 2015.
That said, Ives writes that March quarter iPhone builds now appear to be in the range of 56 million to 62 million units, down from a previous estimate of 60 million to 70 million units—he contends that recent softness in Apple stock reflects growing expectations that March quarter demand will be down a little from robust December quarter levels. Apple doesn’t actually report unit sales, but the company had December quarter iPhone revenue of $65.5 billion, up 17% from a year earlier, ahead of previous Street consensus estimates of $59.6 billion.
For the June quarter, Ives says it still looks the supply chain is building in the mid-40 million units, consistent with previous checks. “Geographically speaking, demand in China looks strong coming out of the Chinese New Year and remains a linchpin to our Apple bull thesis,” Ives adds. “We also believe [average selling prices] are continuing to trend higher on a positive mix of iPhone Pro versions and Pro Max shipped, which bodes well for the next few quarters with this top-line tailwind.”
Apple stock on Monday is up 3.1% to $124.97.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com
