In the world of crypto predictions, accuracy often feels like a moving target. Yet, Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, has managed to hit the bullseye year after year.
Back at the beginning of 2023, when Bitcoin hovered around $22,000 Farrell boldly forecasted a climb to $44,000 — a target Bitcoin met by year’s end. In 2024, his call for $115,000 came remarkably close as Bitcoin peaked at $108,000. Now, Farrell has set his sights on 2025 with an ambitious prediction: Bitcoin will reach $175,000.
“I do think that Bitcoin gets to $175,000 this year,” Farrell told Coinage in a prediction-filled look ahead to 2025. His projection isn’t just speculation; it’s backed by a rigorous macro model that considers inflows into the Bitcoin network and historical trends. Farrell explained that this year will be far from a repeat from last year.
“This year, flows are a little more subdued — not low but growing at a less fast pace. Yet, I think we move into territory where we could see a blow-off top at some point in 2025.”
Farrell acknowledged that the crypto market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. “When liquidity is plentiful, when rates are rolling over, when we have soft landing-esque conditions, crypto thrives. It’s the fastest horse in the race. But when financial conditions tighten, it’s the worst horse to own,” he said.
Despite these challenges, Farrell pointed to a few catalysts he believes will inject ample liquidity into the market. “We’re at a point where the market is very concerned about trade policy and other macro factors, but I view these concerns as a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-news type situation,” he said, adding that regulatory shifts under President Trump could provide tailwinds for crypto.
The potential for regulatory clarity has become a cornerstone of Farrell’s bullish outlook. He pointed to the anticipated rescission of SAB 121 — a rule limiting banks’ involvement in crypto custody — as a game-changing move. “That would allow banks to come into the space and custody crypto assets, which creates a new cohort of constructive market participants,” Farrell noted.
He also highlighted the influence of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), though he tempered expectations. “The probability of an SBR being approved this year is probably sub-50%. But even speculation about it could trigger a significant rally,” he said.
Farrell’s enthusiasm for Bitcoin’s future extends beyond its price. He discussed the evolving narrative around Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions, such as Stacks and Core, as essential components for unlocking Bitcoin’s potential. “We’ve seen some progress, but liquidity dispersion among newer L2 projects could create challenges for established players. Still, the size of the prize remains substantial,” he explained.
