TLDR:
- Bitcoin has dropped 11.4% from its recent all-time high of $109,000 and is currently trading below $100,000, with the price at $96,265
- The Choppiness Index shows market instability with readings of 62 (daily) and 72 (weekly), suggesting upcoming volatility
- Key support levels are identified at $92,000 (Short Term Holders Cost Base) and between $80,000-$89,000 (200-day EMA)
- Multiple “death crosses” have appeared on Bitcoin’s daily chart, with bid liquidity at $95,000 potentially limiting downside
- Trading volumes have decreased while Bitcoin’s correlation with equities remains intact, with no major crypto-specific catalysts in sight
Bitcoin’s price has pulled back from its record high of $109,000, currently trading at $96,265, marking an 11.4% decrease. The leading cryptocurrency’s movement has captured the attention of traders and analysts as it operates within a confined range below the $100,000 threshold.
Market data reveals that Bitcoin is experiencing a “loading phase,” characterized by sharp upward movements followed by extended consolidation periods. This pattern has become more evident in recent weeks as the price continues to fluctuate within a 16% range over the past 90 days.
BTC Price
The Choppiness Index, a technical indicator that helps determine market conditions, currently shows readings of 62 on daily charts and 72 on weekly timeframes. These numbers point to market instability and suggest that a period of increased price movement may be approaching.
Technical analysis has identified several key support levels that could play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s next move. The Short Term Holders Cost Base, positioned at $92,000, represents the first major support level. Should this level fail to hold, the next support zone extends from $80,000 to $89,000, coinciding with the 200-day exponential moving average.
The short-term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether coins moving on-chain are being sold at a profit or loss, is currently just below 1. This reading indicates the market is near equilibrium, similar to conditions observed in August 2023 before a major price rally.
Recent data from trading platforms shows the emergence of multiple “death crosses” on Bitcoin’s daily chart. A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, often interpreted as a bearish signal. However, bid liquidity appearing at the $95,000 level could help limit potential downside volatility.
Trading volumes have seen a decline amid reduced market volatility. The seven-day realized volatility has dropped to 36, reflecting the current state of price consolidation. Market observers note that Bitcoin’s price action appears to be more influenced by broader market factors, as its correlation with traditional equities remains strong.
Institutional participation has temporarily paused due to the President’s Day holiday in the United States, removing a key source of market activity. Open interest in Bitcoin options remains low, suggesting that many traders are waiting on the sidelines for more concrete policy developments rather than responding to general pro-crypto sentiment.
Analysts
Some analysts, including crypto analyst Ali, have spotted potential bullish signals. The TD Sequential indicator on the 4-hour chart is showing a buy signal, which could point to an upcoming price rebound. This same indicator had accurately predicted the recent local top.
After accurately timing the recent local top, the TD Sequential indicator is now flashing a buy signal on the #Bitcoin $BTC 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential price rebound! pic.twitter.com/3IzinRirxo
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 17, 2025
The cryptocurrency’s price structure often includes false moves before establishing a clear trend. This pattern has led to warnings about the risks of attempting to time market breakouts at current levels, as positions could be eliminated before a sustained directional move takes place.
Trading resource Material Indicators has observed that while retail investors maintained their Bitcoin exposure over the weekend, other trader categories reduced their positions. They emphasize the importance of patience and disciplined trading during this period of uncertainty.
QCP Capital, a trading firm, reports that Bitcoin has remained relatively steady despite recent macroeconomic data, particularly concerning inflation pressures. The firm notes that the crypto options market appears to be awaiting concrete policy changes rather than reacting to positive crypto rhetoric.
Current order book data from major exchanges shows clear bid support at the $95,000 level, which could serve as a buffer against further price declines. This liquidity structure suggests that while downside risks exist, there is also substantial buying interest at lower levels.
The market continues to monitor these technical indicators and price levels as Bitcoin navigates this period of reduced volatility. The price currently stands at $96,265, representing a 1% decrease over the past 24 hours.
