Bitcoin‘s BTC/USD price action may soon escape its current consolidation phase, analysts say, as several key catalysts—ranging from regulatory shifts to evolving U.S. crypto policy—signal a potential breakout.
What Happened: While inflation concerns have postponed rate cut expectations, BTC’s resilience amid macro uncertainty is reviving investor confidence.
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range following hotter-than-expected inflation data, but analysts believe a convergence of regulatory clarity, policy momentum, and geopolitical tailwinds could trigger the next leg higher.
On Friday, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index printed at 2.8% year-over-year—slightly above expectations of 2.7%.
This modest upside surprise has dimmed hopes of imminent interest rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve likely to take a more measured approach.
Still, Bitcoin has held firm.
“Bitcoin is only down 0.40%, still defending its crucial $84,000–$85,000 support zone,” said Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, in a note shared with Benzinga.
“This resilience speaks to Bitcoin’s unique value proposition… a non-sovereign store of value designed to help weather your portfolio through all market conditions,” he added.
A key reason for the stability is a growing separation between Bitcoin and altcoins, even amid broad-based weakness in risk assets. “Bitcoin has stayed resilient,” said Azeem Khan, a consultant to the UNICEF CryptoFund. “In a market where investors are looking to beat inflation, I’d say we’ll see stronger sentiment towards Bitcoin.”
That said, inflation remains a near-term headwind.
According to Nic Puckrin, founder of The Coin Bureau, today’s PCE print and the upward revision to January’s data have likely pushed out any near-term rate cut.
He noted that the Fed would be cautious given past missteps, especially after Powell’s widely criticized “transitory” inflation comments.
Puckrin added that tariffs could continue pushing inflation higher over the next few months, which only reinforces the Fed’s hesitancy to act. He believes this macro backdrop will keep Bitcoin range-bound for now.
“I don’t foresee Bitcoin returning to its ATH until the Fed cuts rates again,” he said, suggesting the market is likely in for more sideways movement in the near term.
Also Read: XRP Could Hit Up To $29.30 In ‘Max Scenario’ By 2030: Bitwise
Why It Matters: But long-term catalysts are forming fast.
The confirmation of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair could unlock long-delayed approvals for Ethereum ETFs and other digital asset products.
His innovation-friendly reputation marks a sharp shift from his predecessors and may unblock months of regulatory gridlock.
Further, bipartisan legislation such as the GENIUS Act—establishing frameworks for dollar-backed stablecoins—is set for Congressional review before August. This aligns with the broader digital asset strategy being pursued by the administration.
Arguably the most pivotal move is Trump’s March 6 executive order initiating a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Agencies must report seized Bitcoin contributions by April 5, with proposed legislation expected by May. If formalized, this reserve would position Bitcoin alongside gold as a sovereign-grade asset.
In this context, analysts are pointing to upside targets far beyond current resistance levels. A break above $90,000–$100,000 could open the door for a test of the all-time high of $108,500—and possibly $150,000 by year-end.
“Crypto is no longer a fringe issue—it’s a central part of the policy conversation,” said Mena. “With institutional demand rising and macro risks potentially easing, the groundwork for renewed momentum is clearly being laid.”
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