Bitcoin Halving: A Wild Ride

Anyone who tells you bitcoin’s volatility is a negative is foolish. Speculators and those folks who have driven the fascination with crypto love volatility. People love to gamble and if you take that away from an asset it becomes a dull backwater. If you are reading this you are unlikely to be a blue chip “widows and orphans” type of investor. While volatility kills it also thrills!

So what do you know, bitcoin has thrown a mighty tantrum, for the hundredth time. That is totally predictable, but what isn’t is what happens next.

Here I outlined the roadmap and series of charts to help navigate this cycle end rally.

Using classic charting used in post war boom markets, we are in a period of equilibrium, typified by this chart from a few days ago:

And here we are:

So the call when you hit these “equilibrium” points is: ‘Is it over or is it half way?’ It’s a quirk of probability, but that’s a tried and tested check for me based on random walk maths.

So the only call is represented by this chart:

So let’s go back to the basic premise of repeating patterns:

So I think I do not need to say much more. If this rally is half way, the theoretical top is $100,000 or so. If not it’s back to $40,000.

Therefore I’m using the box as guide rails to keep track of the action. The above chart is very compelling to me, but that is no reason to be bitcoin-maxi complacent. A repeating pattern needs a repeating process, and in this ever-changing world we live in patterns can change. For now at least we remain in bounds.

We are days away from the halving, but that is no finishing post; in fact, in the past there has been a lag between the cut in new bitcoin production and a rally, so it remains the case that holders need to watch and wait or take their profits and retire off to count them. I generally bail early but to me we still have a final leg to go.

This is not fate but an opinion and in these market verticals it is extremely difficult to know when the party is over, but for now the music is still playing and it is time to look for opportunities that could balloon on any last leg move. To me that might be ordinals and runes on the bitcoin chain, so it is time to go skill up on them, because in crypto it is in obscurity that the big returns lay.

Disclosure: I own bitcoin, ethereum, ordinals and various crypto of many kinds.