- The Bitcoin halving reset the crypto market over the weekend.
- While the cryptocurrency is still down 10% from its record, traders are signalling via options that they see the price going higher.
- CCData found the most gains occurred 180 days after halvings — rising between 50% and 100%.
Options traders have bet about $540 million that Bitcoin will rally by June.
The trades — tracker basedmoney compiled bullish and bearish bets via options that expire on June 28 — highlight optimism across the crypto space on the back of the halving, which halved the rewards miners get for maintaining the blockchain in half — effectively cutting the supply of new tokens hitting the market.
Bitcoin is trading 10% down from its $73,700 all-time high in March. Demand for the cryptocurrency this year was driven especially by 10 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in the US.
Bullish trades
While the exact timing for when prices will begin to pick up is uncertain, Bitcoin has typically risen a month to three months post-halving, digital asset data firm CCData wrote.
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It also found the most gains happened 180 days after the event had occurred — rising between 50% and 100%.
That aligns with the options trades made on derivatives trading platform Deribit, aggregated by basedmoney.
Over half of the 48,800 bullish bets, or calls, due to expire on June 28 will pay off when Bitcoin reaches $75,000. That suggests that traders are optimistic that Bitcoin will climb even higher.
The put-call ratio — a measurement to gauge the overall mood of a market — for the trades expiring on that date stands at 0.39.
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A higher ratio — going as high as 1 — signals a more bearish outlook from options traders. A lower one is more bullish.
The trades signal even stronger optimism in the long run, with options expiring on September 26, December 27, and March 28 having a put-call ratio of 0.35, 0.28, and 0.17, respectively.
Several macroeconomic factors risk souring the rally, including stubborn inflation keeping central banks from cutting interest rates, growing tension in the Middle East, miners selling off their assets and tightening liquidity conditions.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin rose by 0.9% in the past 24 hours and is trading at $65,900.
- Ethereum jumped 0.8% to $3,200.
What we’re reading
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News editor. Sebastian Sinclair is a markets correspondent for DL News. Have a tip? Contact them at eric@dlnews.com and sebastian@dlnews.com.
