Key events
China’s response to TikTok restoring services in the US
TikTok is restoring services in the US after Donald Trump pledged over the weekend to give the video app a reprieve on its US ban.
When asked about this, China’s foreign ministry told a regular news briefing that it believed companies should “decide independently” about their operations and deals, Reuters reported.
Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said:
TikTok has operated in the US for many years and is deeply loved by American users. We hope that the US can earnestly listen to the voice of reason and provide an open, fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for firms operating there.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that after taking office on Monday he would sign an executive order allowing the Chinese-owned video app additional time to find a buyer before facing a total shutdown, and proposing that the US or an American firm take a 50% ownership stake.
Chris Turner, ING’s global head of markets, has looked at potential US tariffs.
The big day has finally arrived. Financial markets are on tenterhooks to see what executive orders newly elected US President Donald Trump will enact on his first day. There’s a lot of focus on immigration controls and declaring a national energy emergency to allow more US oil and gas production. Currency markets are most interested in what he has to say about tariffs and what kind of pain the Oval Office plans to inflict on major trade partners. At last week’s nomination hearings, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that tariffs would be needed to address unfair trade practices, support government revenue, and to be used as a negotiating tool.
In terms of what is currently priced for tariffs by financial markets, we find the online prediction websites quite useful, such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket is running a book on which countries will receive US tariffs in Trump’s first week. China is priced at 56%, Mexico at 54%, Canada at 45% and the European Union at just 7%. There is also the case – using Scott Bessent’s remarks about tariffs as negotiating tools – that the new administration goes in on tariffs hard at the outset. That is why after a near 10% rally from late September, the dollar today is less than one percent off its recent high.
Of course, there will be the risk of a correction in the dollar should it look like Trump will be more selective on tariffs after all – but that should probably come at a later stage.
Thursday could also be an important day for markets this week, when Trump is due to have a digital dialogue with leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Victoria Hasler, head of fund research at Hargreaves Lansdown, has looked at what Trump’s second presidency could mean for markets:
A new year, a new president. The lead up to Trump’s presidency has been noisy and, at times, divisive. Markets hate uncertainty though, and the simple fact of having the new president settled in the White House may prove to be a good thing for markets. Over the next few weeks and months, we (and the rest of the world) will be watching closely, listening to the speeches and analysing the policies. No doubt some will have a more positive impact on markets than others – expect some fireworks and associated volatility as we navigate the next four years.
This notwithstanding, there are good reasons to believe that the impact on the US stock market could be positive, and particularly so for smaller companies. Because trade tariffs, Trump’s most talked-about policy, favour domestic businesses over international conglomerates, and smaller companies are usually more domestically focused. During campaigning, and since the election, we heard a lot about tariffs. We expect the reality to be a little more muted than the campaign chat, but nonetheless at least some new tariffs are likely, particularly when it comes to Chinese trade.
At the same time, we have the supportive backdrop of monetary policy easing. While we don’t expect interest rates to fall as quickly as originally anticipated, they are almost certainly on a downward trajectory. Historically, small companies have tended to perform well relative to their larger counterparts in a falling interest rate environment, which further strengthens the outlook for smaller companies. Add to that the potential for lower personal and corporation taxes in the US and the tailwinds are building for US smaller companies.
Looking a little further afield, Trump’s occupancy of the White House could cause some jitters in global equity markets. We have yet to see how his foreign policy will play out, but it could cause tension with certain countries, including China, and tariffs could impact growth in markets which rely on exporting goods to the US. Markets aren’t keen on geopolitical uncertainty, and if tensions escalate, we expect to see increased volatility.
Introduction: Bitcoin hits new record high, dollar dips ahead of Trump inauguration
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Bitcoin, the world’s best-known cryptocurrency, has hit a fresh record high ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington DC later today, while the dollar dipped.
The president-elect has promised a crypto-friendly administration, pledging to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet” and to create a “strategic national bitcoin reserve” during his election campaign.
Trump has launched his own crypto currency – which briefly tanked over the weekend when his wife Melania also launched a multi-billion dollar cryptocurrency meme coin.
Meanwhile, bitcoin has risen by 4% and hit a new record high of $109,071 during Asian trading. It reversed earlier losses when it dropped to nearly $100,000 when the Melania Trump-backed cryptocurrency launched.
The dollar, which has strengthened against other currencies in recent months, dipped by 0.3% against a basket of major currencies today. The pound and the euro both rose by 0.4% against the greenback.
Asian stocks have pushed higher, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining 1.17% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.8%. In China, the Shanghai Composite edged up by 0.08% while the Shenzhen exchange rose by almost 1%.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said:
A good part of Trump trade has already happened – the small and mid-caps rallied, energy and financials outperformed and cryptocurrencies touched the sky. Therefore, the first week under Trump may not bring a lot of surprises… (but it may as well!) The WSJ writes that Donald Trump has already prepared 100 – yes 100 – executive orders to take swift action after today’s inauguration, including an order to make crypto a policy priority and giving insiders of the crypto market a good voice within his administration.
Trump launched a cryptocurrency of his own on the Solana blockchain and the coin gained up to 600% in three days reaching a $15bn capitalization before easing – a little bit – also sending Solana to a fresh record high.
But beyond that optimism, Trump policies are expected to be a double-edged sword. His pro-growth policies and deregulation are expected to benefit to the US economy but his tariff policies will certainly lead inflation higher and soften the Fed doves’ hands for easing policy. In addition, exploding debt levels will likely further push the borrowing costs higher.
Trump has promised to mark day one of his presidency with a barrage of executive orders targeting illegal immigration, transgender rights and other rightwing priorities.
ING analyst Chris Turner said:
Today, all eyes are on Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States. Financial markets are bracing for a flurry of executive orders ranging from immigration to energy and possibly trade. On tariffs, betting markets are marginally priced in favour of tariff action against China and Mexico this week. After four months of being bought on the rumour, the dollar is now exposed to some selling on the fact – but there should be plenty of dollar buyers on dips.
The latter referred to the practice of buying a weaker asset and selling it once it has reached a new high.
US markets are shut today for the Martin Luther King public holiday, and the US economic calendar is quiet this week.
The world’s political and business leaders are heading to the Swiss ski resort of Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, which starts today.
The Agenda
