Bitcoin’s market is showing signs of a potential price shift as miners enter a phase of “capitulation.” This phase is identified by the hash ribbon indicator, which tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate. When the 30-day moving average dips below the 60-day average, it signals that mining Bitcoin has become financially unsustainable, with the cost of mining surpassing the value of Bitcoin itself. This situation, known as miner capitulation, is a rare occurrence but often precedes a significant price reversal.
On Feb. 10, 2025, Bitcoin analytics account Bitcoindata21 highlighted a potential turning point for Bitcoin, citing the hash ribbon’s triggering of a capitulation signal. This event is considered a local bottom indicator, often leading to upward price action. The last time such a signal appeared was in October 2024, when Bitcoin’s price surged from $73,800 to $108,000 in just two months. Historically, miner capitulation events have preceded periods of strong price rallies for Bitcoin.
The hash ribbon indicator is considered a reliable tool for predicting market reversals. When the 30-day moving average of hashrate crosses above the 60-day moving average, it marks the end of the capitulation phase, signaling that a potential price recovery is underway. This shift in the hash ribbon’s data suggests that the worst of the miner capitulation phase could be over, with analysts anticipating a possible upward trend in Bitcoin’s price.
Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, affirmed the reliability of the hash ribbon, stating that it has only failed once, during the market shock caused by COVID-19. He emphasized that every time the indicator has flashed, Bitcoin has experienced a rally. The hash ribbon, according to Darkfost, has consistently highlighted optimal points for entering the market, both for short-term positioning and long-term accumulation.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, also noted a recent trend among miners to increase their Bitcoin holdings. This indicates that miners are expecting Bitcoin’s price to rise in the future. Edwards pointed out that while the current capitulation phase has only just begun, the hash ribbon’s eventual buy signal could signal a shift in market sentiment. He acknowledged that much can happen before a buy signal is confirmed, but the current data suggests that we may be entering a “window of opportunity” for Bitcoin.
With the hash ribbon indicating miner capitulation, Bitcoin’s market is under close scrutiny. The pattern of price rebounds following such capitulation events has analysts cautiously optimistic about the potential for a new bullish phase. However, as always, Bitcoin’s market is volatile, and the coming weeks will determine whether the predicted price surge materializes.
