Bitcoin Stalls Just Below $95K at Key Fibonacci Cluster
Bitcoin surged to a high of $94,696 on yesterday’s candle—just shy of the critical $95,000 Fibonacci cluster level and the upper wick from March 2nd. This powerful rally brought BTC up 11% in just three days, signaling incredible strength. But now that price is slowing and candles are shrinking, we’ve reached a crucial inflection point. If BTC fails to close above $95,000, it increases the probability of a rejection and a retrace down to the $82K region.
Three things must hold up to remain bullish: price action needs to close above $95K, daily RSI must avoid forming lower highs, and Volume must stay above the 30-day moving average. If all three start failing, a pullback becomes likely. Meanwhile, BTC is still holding above the daily TBO Cloud and confirmed a TBO Open Long earlier this week. OBV remains bullish, but BTC is now overextended above the TBO Fast line.
Macro Structure Still Bullish Despite Short-Term Overbought Conditions
On the weekly chart, BTC remains above the weekly TBO Cloud, with RSI continuing to rise. OBV is on pace to cross its MA line this week, which would strengthen the bullish case. Volume, however, is lagging and will need a boost to sustain momentum. Short-term charts like the 4-hour show no reversal signals yet, but price is now encountering historical resistance at previous TBO levels.
ETH followed suit by closing its CME gap and entering the daily TBO Cloud with bullish RSI, Volume, and OBV signals. Still, no TBO Close Short has been confirmed on the daily yet.
Stablecoin dominance dipped into the daily TBO Cloud again, showing bearish consolidation, but RSI is due for a reset. On the 4h chart, stablecoin dominance is sitting at TBO Support, which could spark a short-term bounce. BTC Dominance remains elevated and strong above the daily TBO Cloud, showing no signs of slowing.
TOTAL Market Cap Resistance Drops: Possible Warning Sign
An interesting development came from the TOTAL crypto market cap chart, where daily TBO Resistance dropped significantly from 3.65T to 2.89T. This reclassification of resistance could reflect that lower levels are being interpreted as key resistance, further signaling a likely short-term top. TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 charts show some pause near resistance, while OTHERS remains below major levels despite pushing upward this week.
BVOL7D continues to tick up, suggesting that volatility is creeping back in—often a precursor to sharp moves.
Altcoins Gain Momentum, But Depend on BTC’s Next Move
Most altcoins are seeing gains, but the sustainability of those gains hinges on whether BTC breaks $95K or gets rejected. BNB failed to hold above resistance. SOL is outperforming ETH, staying above the 0.382 Fib level and pushing toward $184 weekly resistance. LINK showed strength on the 4h chart but has a mixed breakout history. SHIB and SUI are holding their gains, with SUI up 40% since Tuesday.
LTC is nearing key resistance at $88-$90 on the daily and $102-$106 on the weekly, though Volume is weak. DOT printed a TBO Close Short and closely mirrors its November 2024 setup that preceded a pump. NEAR, APT, and AAVE are all flashing similar reversal signs with TBO Close Shorts and resistance tests.
Meme and low-cap coins continue to shine: TRUMP pumped 77% after news of a dinner perk for the top 220 holders, BRETT surged 70%, and FARTCOIN printed a 4h TBO Breakout cluster after breaking its 0.618 Fib level. HEX rallied 28% following its win against the SEC.
The Bottom Line
BTC is at a make-or-break moment near $95K. Failure to close above this level increases the probability of a rejection and a retrace to $82K. Watch for signs of stalling, shrinking daily candles, weakening RSI, and falling Volume. For now, momentum remains strong, but the speed of the move up warrants caution.
Altcoins have made big gains, but due to the Multiple Factor Effect, they are at greater risk if BTC retraces. Secure profits on strong bounces, especially for coins still near all-time lows.
This is not the end of the move—just a critical pause. Keep your eyes on $95K.
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