14h05 ▪
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min read ▪ by
The bitcoin is currently showing signs of recovery after a period of high volatility. Despite a 30% drop from its historic peak in January, the queen of crypto seems to be finding some equilibrium. Several key elements are emerging, suggesting a return of BTC to $90,000 in the coming days.
A solid derivatives market despite the correction
For several weeks, bitcoin has been trading below $86,000, struggling to regain its recent highs, due to global economic uncertainties. However, the indicators from the derivatives market show no signs of panic. Indeed, the basis rate of futures contracts, which measures the premium of monthly contracts over the spot market, has stabilized around 5%, down from 8% two weeks ago. This level, while lower, remains neutral, suggesting that investors are not yielding to selling pressure.
Other elements confirm this cautious outlook. The long/short ratio on OKX shows that long positions exceed short positions at a ratio of 18:1, well below euphoric levels, but far from extreme pessimism. Furthermore, the correlation with the S&P 500 could influence BTC’s trajectory. A recovery in equity markets after their recent 10% correction could propel bitcoin towards $90,000.
Bitcoin whales accumulate and technical signals turn green
Optimism is also growing around bitcoin, particularly due to the movements of whales. According to data from Santiment, addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC added 20,000 BTC in 24 hours, a strong sign of institutional confidence. Historically, this type of accumulation often precedes marked increases.
On the technical analysis side, bitcoin is forming a triangular ascending pattern, a bullish configuration combining horizontal resistance and upward support. Currently, BTC is attempting to break above $84,000. However, confirmation of the signal depends on the trading volume. Without a significant increase, the breakout could fail, leading to a consolidation phase rather than a bullish recovery.
Towards a return to $90,000?
Bitcoin is in a decisive phase. If the crypto manages to confirm the breakout of the ascending triangle and if whales continue their accumulation, a return to $90,000 seems possible. However, several obstacles remain: market volatility, central bank decisions, and Bitcoin ETF flows remain determining factors.
The coming weeks will be crucial to validate or not this scenario. If macroeconomic conditions improve and institutional demand remains strong, bitcoin could well resume its upward trajectory. Otherwise, consolidation may prolong and BTC could stagnate for another 8 months.
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The world is evolving and adaptation is the best weapon to survive in this undulating universe. Originally a crypto community manager, I am interested in anything that is directly or indirectly related to blockchain and its derivatives. To share my experience and promote a field that I am passionate about, nothing is better than writing informative and relaxed articles.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
