Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently priced around $105,000, showing a 1.6% increase in the last 24 hours, with analysts predicting a potential breakout.
- A converging triangle pattern indicates that Bitcoin may soon experience significant price swings, with a target of $116,000 suggested by traders.
- Critical resistance at $106,500 could determine Bitcoin’s next move, with a successful breakout potentially leading to a rise towards $120,000.
- Institutional interest remains strong, with significant inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, supporting long-term price growth despite short-term volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding steady around $105,000, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours, with analysts anticipating a significant breakout from its recent consolidation pattern. Technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest BTC/USD could be preparing for a fresh wave of volatility that might propel prices to new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
Converging Triangle Pattern Signals Imminent Breakout
Following weeks of dropping volatility, Bitcoin has developed a converging triangle pattern with declining trade volume—a classic technical indication usually preceding significant price swings. With liquidation data from CoinGlass verifying these levels as main points of interest, traders are actively monitoring the limited range between $103,000 and $105,000.
With a “early week” objective of $116,000, popular trader Alan suggests Bitcoin could rapidly depart its limited trading range behind and set new all-time highs above its past record of $108,786. Consistent Coinbase spot premiums, which show great purchasing demand from American investors, confirm this positive view.
BTC’s Open Interest Metrics Reveal Cyclical Behavior
Recent open interest (OI) data analysis by blockchain analytics company Alphractal points to Bitcoin maybe entering a new phase of its market cycle. Reaching levels akin to those observed during Bitcoin’s ascent to its last all-time high above $73,737 earlier this year, the 30-day Open Interest Delta has peaked.
“A familiar pattern is emerging: alternate cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta—what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2,” Alphractal observed. “After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clearly cyclical behavior in the market.”
More curiously, the 180-day Open Interest Delta is lingering just above negative territory, usually indicating either a market bottom or accumulation pattern. This indicator shows that Bitcoin might become more volatile in the next weeks; a dive below zero would point to the beginning of a fresh consolidation phase.
Critical $106,500 Resistance Holds the Key to Bitcoin’s Next Move
Market researcher Crypto Patel notes $106,500 as a critical resistance level that has historically sparked price rejections in December and January. While failure might cause a return to the $90,000 support zone, maybe extending to the April low of $75,000, a successful breakthrough over this level could maintain Bitcoin’s rise toward $120,000.
Recently pulling from overbought territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gives some validity for the likelihood of a temporary drop. But good macroeconomic developments—including the 90-day tariff ceasefire between the U.S. and China—coupled with strong institutional investment through spot ETFs help to justify further positive momentum.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Long-Term Holders Hold the Key to $120K Peak
BTC/USD
The Cumulative Value Days Destroying (CVDD) statistic is highlighted by on-chain analyst Ali Martinez as a possible predictor of Bitcoin’s price limit in the present bull cycle. CVDD tracks the expenditure behavior of long-term holders; increases usually coincide with overheated market circumstances.
Reflecting past bull market peaks at $20,000 in 2017 and $69,000 in 2021, based on CryptoQuant’s projection of Bitcoin’s current CVDD at $34,154, the anticipated “Accessing Tops” level sits around $120,000.
Martinez underlines, nonetheless, that keeping Bitcoin’s bullish structure and allowing a possible rise to $120,000 depends on keeping support at $90,000. This level matches the “Accumulating Phase 2” support band that has regularly supported pricing over 2025.
Institutional Inflows Remain Strong
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is unabated even with current market uncertainty. With net inflows of $1.81 billion, US Bitcoin spot ETFs achieved another amazing week proving continuous demand from conventional finance.
With a market valuation of $2.04 trillion, Bitcoin keeps its supremacy accounting for around 62.8% of all cryptocurrencies available. Though short-term volatility exists, this continuous institutional adoption offers a strong basis for long-term price gain.
Short-Term Outlook
Bitcoin will encounter resistance at $105,000 for the near future; a decisive close above $107,000 will help to confirm positive momentum. Prediction site CoinCodex, which presently displays a Fear & Greed Index of 74 (showing strong levels of market greed), projects Bitcoin might reach $127,872 within five days before dropping to approximately $111,616.
CoinCodex forecasts Bitcoin to reach $155,583 in three months and $148,167 in six months over longer timeframes, implying continuous but maybe erratic upward rise through the rest of 2025.
Traders and investors both should get ready for increased volatility and maybe major price action in the next days as Bitcoin approaches the important $106,500 resistance mark.
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
