Bitcoin’s price has surpassed $100,000, but research suggests that the market is not yet experiencing extreme FOMO. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that newer investors, tracked through unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), have not entered at the levels seen during previous bull market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Historically, bull market tops are marked by short-term holders, who have held Bitcoin for less than three months, accounting for more than 70% of UTXOs. Currently, this figure is just over half, indicating that the market has room to grow before reaching a cycle peak.
Glassnode confirms that the share of Bitcoin held by new investors remains well below the levels seen at previous all-time highs. CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that while new investor participation has increased, it has not reached extreme levels. This means Bitcoin’s price could still have further upside, but traders should monitor the ratio of young coins to long-term holdings for potential warning signs of a market top.
Bitcoin has been trading within a $20,000 range for more than two months, fueling expectations of a breakout. Traders believe that a daily close above $110,000 could set the stage for a stronger rally. Analyst Jelle pointed to a bullish pennant breakout, stating that if Bitcoin closes above this key level, the next target could be around $145,000. Many traders expect sideways movements to eventually give way to another leg up.
While market sentiment remains positive, CryptoQuant warns that investors should watch for signals that typically indicate the end of a bull cycle. Increased participation from inexperienced traders and a higher percentage of short-term UTXOs could suggest that the market is nearing its peak. At the moment, however, Bitcoin’s price activity does not reflect the same speculative frenzy seen in past cycle tops.
Despite Bitcoin’s psychological milestone of crossing $100,000, research indicates that market behavior remains measured. Unlike previous peaks, where new investors rushed in to buy at high prices, current conditions suggest a more controlled phase of market growth. Some traders remain cautious, waiting for confirmation of a breakout before increasing exposure.
The ongoing analysis from multiple on-chain data firms suggests that Bitcoin’s current price action does not yet mirror the conditions that have historically led to major corrections. However, traders and analysts remain watchful, knowing that the market could shift quickly. Whether Bitcoin’s rally continues toward $145,000 or encounters resistance depends on the strength of buying pressure and market confidence.
