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(Kitco News) – Bitcoin surged to $35,000 early this week – the best level since May 2022 – on optimism about a spot Bitcoin ETF getting approved and a general flight to safety. According to Stephan Livera, Host of the Stephan Livera Podcast and Head of Education at Swan Bitcoin, the latest rally is just the beginning before a massive bull run that will peak at around $500,000.
Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will significantly impact the price of Bitcoin, Livera told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, on the sidelines of the Pacific Bitcoin Festival.
Bitcoin surged 10% last week on a false report that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF application was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) but has maintained that momentum with more speculation that an ETF approval is a matter of when not if.
There have been several comments that a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could come at the end of this year. However, Livera doesn’t expect this to happen until 2024.
“Although many experts predict that [a spot Bitcoin ETF] will come in three to six months, I don’t believe it will happen this year. Next year is the more likely scenario … in the first or second quarter of 2024, which would coincide with the halving cycle, which is expected in April,” he said.
Next year’s halving and the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF are the key triggers in opening the floodgates into Bitcoin, Livera pointed out. “There will now be so many more people investing in Bitcoin through that spot ETF,” he said.
Bitcoin price forecast
Livera sees Bitcoin trading around the $30,000 level in the short term and then slowly rising to the $40,000 level into next year’s halving. Following the halving, he predicts a drop, followed by the next bull run.
Bitcoin halving, scheduled to take place on April 24, is an event that occurs every four years – halving the reward miners receive for adding new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. Following next year’s halving, the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC.
“Historically, what we’ve seen around the halving is a bit of a rise into the halving, then a bit of a selloff after. Six to 12 months out, that’s when the real crazy bull run happens, and you get 10x or 20x in the Bitcoin price at that point,” Livera described.
At the end of 2024, he added that Bitcoin will likely kick off a massive rally that will see “violent moves up,” peaking at around $500,000 in 2025 or early 2026.
“It’s quite possible that Bitcoin comes close to the range of gold, and that would imply a price in the $500k range. As is a tradition in this industry, we’ll probably hit that as a blow-off top, followed by a drop of 80%,” Livera noted. “It’s quite reasonable when you think about how many new people can come in this wave. But we’ll probably drop 75% or 80% after that. So, it might go to $500k and then crash to $100k.”
To get Livera’s reasons why he sees $500,000 as the peak level in the next bull market followed by an 80% selloff, watch the video above.
Coverage of the Pacific Bitcoin Festival is brought to you by Swan Bitcoin – Swan.com
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