Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are experiencing a sharp decline, with BTC hitting lows of $94,550 today.
This follows Bitcoin’s brief return to the six-figure price range earlier this month, reaching $102,720 just yesterday. The dramatic bearish turn has prompted analysts to explore on-chain indicators to identify potential triggers.
Shayan, a verified author at the analytics platform CryptoQuant, has pointed to a decline in Bitcoin funding rates within the derivatives market as a critical factor.
Funding rates reflect the demand for Bitcoin derivatives and play a major role in sustaining price trends. A strong rally is typically accompanied by a rise in funding rates, indicating robust demand.
However, Shayan noted that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price lacked significant funding rate support in the early stages, with rates only seeing a sharp rise midway through the rally. This delay suggests weaker-than-expected market commitment, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to price corrections.
Market Hesitation and Capital Outflow
This situation is notably observable in the rally that led Bitcoin to an all-time high in December 2024.
For instance, data from Coinglass shows that the Bitcoin Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate stood at 0.0906% as of December 5, 2024. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $102K.
However, the rate decreased in the subsequent days even as the price of Bitcoin continued to rise. Specifically, it dropped sharply as Bitcoin encountered rejection at $108,300 on December 17, 2024.
This decline shows a reduction in traders’ commitment, with many losing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its upward trajectory.
In his commentary, Shayan confirmed that the observed decline in funding rates signals not only capital outflows from the derivatives market but also insufficient support to sustain the bullish momentum.
Essentially, leveraged traders showed minimal interest in maintaining their positions as Bitcoin traded in the six-figure range, fearing a major correction. This translated into broader hesitation among market participants, further weighing on Bitcoin’s price.
Yesterday, when Bitcoin was trading above $102K, the funding rate dipped to 0.0044% from 0.0113% the previous day.
Bitcoin Risks Deeper Correction
The current trend now points to a potential test of lower price levels. Shayan argued that if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above the $90K level, it could face increased selling pressure.
Furthermore, he stated that traders may lose even more confidence. He projected deeper corrections and the possibility of revisiting lower Fibonacci levels or psychological price thresholds.
However, if funding rates recover and strong buying activity returns to the market, Bitcoin could stabilize and continue its ascent, resuming its bullish path.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $95,060, indicating the threat of further declines.
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