Bitcoin’s price has been a point of concern, with some experts believing that its recent movements appear to be “manufactured.” Trading between $92,400 and $106,500 since mid-December 2024, the cryptocurrency has remained largely range-bound despite significant institutional inflows. Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, discussed this issue during a panel at Consensus Hong Kong, stating that Bitcoin’s price movement “just doesn’t look natural at all.” He observed that the coin would peak and then remain steady, often moving sideways. Mow suggested that the tight range in which Bitcoin has been trading could indicate some sort of price suppression.
Despite the stagnation, there remains optimism about Bitcoin’s long-term future. Mow noted that Bitcoin’s rise past $100,000 could be the start of a massive wave of institutional adoption that could last 10 to 20 years. Previous bull runs, he explained, were muted due to backlogged exchanges. However, with the introduction of ETFs, Mow emphasized that there are no longer barriers to traditional finance capital flowing into Bitcoin. Still, the influx of capital has not yet fully materialized, with institutions currently only “dipping their toes” in the market.
The slow-moving price action is even more puzzling given that institutional buyers, such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, have been continuously accumulating Bitcoin. Mow pointed out that while retail buyers are dollar-cost averaging and buying Bitcoin regularly, there still seems to be selling pressure. “If Bitcoin’s price isn’t moving despite institutions and retail buyers accumulating BTC, then someone must be selling,” he said. He further explained that while the market faced structural sellers due to bankruptcies and restructuring last year, that period is largely over.
The repayment process at FTX is also contributing to the selling pressure. As the company begins repaying creditors, it is doing so based on Bitcoin’s price from November 2022 when it was around $20,000. This could lead to more selling as creditors attempt to capitalize on their gains. Mow mentioned that FTX’s Bitcoin sales, made at much lower prices, could explain the lack of upward movement.
Bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high of $109,000 following Donald Trump’s inauguration but quickly fell back into its previous range. This movement, combined with a significant absorption of Bitcoin by institutional buyers, has left some analysts scratching their heads. In the two months leading up to October 2024, 1.1 million Bitcoin were absorbed, worth around $110 billion at current prices. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price remained constrained within a narrow range.
In addition to these developments, the wider cryptocurrency market has also been facing losses. Bitcoin recently dropped below $95,000, marking its lowest price in weeks. Other coins like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin have also experienced declines. Despite these fluctuations, some analysts predict that Bitcoin could surpass $160,000 to $180,000 in the near future.
