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While the dollar falters under the battering blows of trade tensions and macroeconomic doubts, bitcoin emerges as a bold alternative. Between hopes of a rebound and strategic uncertainties, the crypto whispers a promise: that of rewriting the rules of the safe haven. What if 2025 marked the advent of a new financial paradigm?
The dollar under pressure: a springboard for bitcoin?
The Sino-American trade war acts as an invisible catalyst. The greenback, struck by fears of overvaluation according to Goldman Sachs, wobbles in the face of ambiguous economic fundamentals.
The DXY index, a reflection of the dollar’s health, oscillates near its historic lows. A meaningful signal: investors are looking for an escape route.
Yet gold, the archetype of a safe haven, breaks records. The yellow metal nears $3,300 an ounce, leaving bitcoin behind. For QCP Capital, this divergence raises questions: “BTC is not yet fully playing its role as a safe haven”.
The markets remain cautious, preferring gold to crypto uncertainty. But this caution may be only an interlude.
Because in the shadows, comparisons with 2023 intensify. BitBull, an influential trader, recalls that a weakened DXY then propelled bitcoin to a 200% increase in one year. André Dragosch, from Bitwise, adds: “An overvalued dollar offers BTC a colossal revaluation margin.” The macroeconomic context, like a headwind for the dollar, becomes a tailwind for the bitcoin price.
Charts and psychology
Beyond fundamentals, technical indicators paint an intriguing picture. Bitcoin against the dollar, after consolidation around $84,000, would be outlining a “double bottom” on hourly charts.
Luca, a renowned analyst, even mentions an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a 4-hour timeframe. If confirmed, such patterns traditionally signal a bullish reversal.
Michaël van de Poppe, a respected voice in the crypto sphere, highlights another key element: the $87,000 level. “A successful retest would pave the way for a new all-time high by the end of the quarter,” he estimates.
Traders are watching this turning point, where market psychology would shift from caution to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
Nevertheless, caution remains essential. U.S. stock indices, in decline, remind us of the volatility of risky assets. Bitcoin, still sensitive to geopolitical shocks, must earn its legitimacy compared to gold. But each consolidation, each resistance broken, patiently builds its story: that of a mature asset ready to seize its moment.
The decline of the dollar is not an end in itself but rather the prelude to a profound recomposition. At the crossroads of economic turmoil and technological advances, bitcoin embodies this transition, even if China quietly disposes of seized cryptocurrencies. If the trends observed in 2023 are confirmed, the cryptocurrency could not only replicate its bullish rally but also establish itself as an essential pillar of contemporary investment portfolios.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
