BTC Price Downside Risks Linger Despite China’s Readiness for Talks

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets remain squarely focused on the U.S.-China trade tussle and headlines from both countries.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 during the Asian morning, with S&P 500 futures nursing a 2% loss after the U.S. lifted the total levy on the world’s second-largest economy to 104%. The Australian dollar, a China-sensitive commodity currency, fell to a five-year low of 0.5913 against the greenback and the volatile U.S. Treasury market threatened a USD liquidity squeeze.

Sentiment improved somewhat after China’s State Council Information Office released a white paper on the tensions that said Beijing is willing to communicate on issues and didn’t mention fresh retaliatory taxes on U.S. imports. It soured some hours later after the Ministry of Finance raised tariffs to 84% from 34%, sending BTC, which had rallied to around $77,000, back below $76,000.

In any case, the sustainability of the recovery was always under question as China’s comments beyond the headlines were tough and suggested the government was unlikely to blink any time soon. For instance, the document said China won’t be bullied and the U.S. will need to show respect and equality if it wants to resolve the problem. The country will take measures to safeguard its rights and interests, it said.

Besides, persistent volatility in bonds, triggered by the supposed unwinding of carry trades and fears of sticky inflation, could work against a sustained recovery in the risk assets. A growing number of observers, including economist Nouriel Roubini, say markets are too optimistic in pricing an aggressive Fed easing, and central bank support will come only after President Donald Trump tempers his rhetoric. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said interest-rate hikes will continue if the economy improves as expected, adding the need to be alert to trade tensions.

In the broader crypto market, BlocScale, a launchpad to onboard projects and community-driven token introductions to XRP Ledger, continued to make waves, with strong uptake for the seed sale of its native token BLOC. “With over 35% of the seed sale allocation already claimed, BlocScale Launchpad is gaining significant traction from early-stage investors, developers, and XRP enthusiasts looking to be part of something groundbreaking,” it said.

The TRUMP token, associated with President Trump, traded at record lows near $7.5 in the wake of massive selling by whales early this week. It is now down 90% from its record high, with a $360 million unlock due later this month. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 9: The Mercury network upgrade gets applied to the Neutron (NTRN) mainnet, migrating it from Cosmos Hub’s Interchain Security to a fully sovereign proof-of-stake network.
  • April 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on updating U.S. securities laws to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
  • April 10, 10:30 a.m.: Status conference for former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
  • April 11, 1 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on “Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading” in Washington.
• Macro
  • April 9, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) releases March consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.48%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.65%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.77%
  • April 9, 11:30 a.m.: U.S. Senate to vote on ending the debate for Paul Atkins’ nomination as SEC Chair. If invoked, confirmation vote at 7 p.m.
  • April 9, 12:01 p.m.: China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports take effect.
  • April 9, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the FOMC meeting held March 18-19.
  • April 9, 9:30 p.m.: China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.2%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 0% vs. Prev. -0.7%
    • PPI YoY Est. -2.3% vs. Prev. -2.2%
  • April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%
  • April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 5.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 223K vs. Prev. 219K
  • April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Michelle Bowman as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Livestream link.
  • April 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
    • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.2%
  • April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $15.25 million.
  • April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $49.08 million.
  • April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $20.73 million.
  • April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $15.71 million.
  • April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $25.31 million.
• Token Listings

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Confidential Balances, a new feature on Solana’s blockchain that lets people send and manage tokens privately, went active late Tuesday.
• It uses zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs), as a way to prove something is true — like you have enough money to pay — without needing to say exactly how much you have. It’s like showing a locked box and proving the cash is inside without opening it.
• When tokens are sent, the amount stays secret. Normally, on blockchains, everyone can see how much is being transferred. Here, only the sender and receiver know the details.
• The token balance (how much you own) is also kept private. Think of it like a bank account where nobody but the owner can peek at the total, unlike most blockchains where balances are public.
• This means the creation or destruction of tokens (minting and burning) can take place without everyone knowing the numbers. For example, a company could issue new tokens or remove some quietly, keeping the total supply under wraps.
• The feature is built for privacy-focused financial apps, like payroll systems or business payments, where participants don’t want the amounts to be made public. It’s a big deal for institutions that want privacy but still need to follow rules.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC futures open interest on offshore exchanges increased as prices dropped during Asian hours, validating the downtrend. The level held steady during the subsequent recovery, suggesting a spot-led move or absence of bullishness among derivative traders. The same can be said about the ETH market.
• The open interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta for the top 25 coins, except BNB, SHIB, BCH and HBAR, is negative for the past 24 hours, a sign of net selling pressure in these markets.
• BTC options flow on Deribit has been mixed with puts lifted along with put spreads and a notable block trade involving a long position in the $84K call expiring on April 25.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.24% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $77,232.03 (24hrs: -1.81%)
• ETH is down 0.36% at $1,475.05 (24hrs: -5.66%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.95% at 2,203.46 (24hrs: -3.04%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 3.69%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0018% (-1.9392% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.68% at 102.25
• Gold is up 3.19% at $3,063.20/oz
• Silver is up 2.53% at $30.34/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -3.93% at 31,714.03
• Hang Seng closed +0.68% at 20,264.49
• FTSE is down 2.01% at 7,751.59
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.11% at 4,673.14
• DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.84% at 37,645.59
• S&P 500 closed -1.57% at 4,982.77
• Nasdaq closed -2.15% at 15,267.91
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -1.54% at 22,506.90
• S&P 40 Latin America closed -2.24% at 2,177.30
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 8 bps at 4.38%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% at 5,031.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.63% at 17,352.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 37,857.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 63.40 (0.08%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01916 (-0.73%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $42.03
• Total Fees: 7.88BTC / $622,998
• CME Futures Open Interest: 429,112 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 25.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.25%

Technical Analysis

• BTC’s monthly candlesticks chart shows the cryptocurrency has almost retraced to the former resistance-turned-support level at $73,757 (March 2024 high) in a classic throwback pattern observed after bullish breakouts.
• A bounce from that level would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $237.95 (-11.26%), up 2.14% at $243.05 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $151.47 (-3.69%), up 0.45% at $152.15
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$13.22 (+7.13%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.52 (-6.57%), up 0.67% at $10.59
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.54 (-8.02%), up 1.22% at $6.62
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.51 (-7.26%), down 1.54% at $6.14
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $6.74 (-9.29%), up 0.89% at $6.80
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $11.49 (-7.41%), up 10.1% at $12.65
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.97 (-6.38%), down 1.02% at $33.80
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.14 (-4.06%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$326.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.74 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$3.3
• Cumulative net flows: $2.37 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.38 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows gyrations in the U.S. 10-year yield and the Nasdaq futures this month.
• Since Friday, the 10-year yield has surged over 50 basis points despite the continued weakness in Nasdaq.
• The rising yield presents a challenge to the Trump administration which wants to lower it to help manage its debt load.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

UPDATE (April 9, 11:38 UTC): Adds China’s tariff retaliation in third paragraph.