Charts You Need To See

In a random market, ranges or repricing can be viewed in a bipolar way: half way there or all the way there. That feels like a useless 50/50, but it isn’t because the next move is big and so can be coat-tailed when it’s established as being underway. It’s tricky but when the next repricing has established its credentials there is usually a lot of further trend direction to make money from.

This is where bitcoin is now, in an equilibrium sideways trend, either going above $100,000 or back down into crypto winter.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin
has rallied hard in the last few days, bringing hope to holders that we are on the way to $100,000-plus. The consensus target around the industry is $120,000-plus but of course there are plenty of people prepared to name the sky as the limit.

This road map of mine from March still holds good:

As does this from April:

This is where we are now:

So while it looks and feels strong we are not trading out of the repricing box just yet.

It is going to be a tough call when it breaks out of this range as we saw when the price popped out of the box momentarily on the downside. Personally, I look for a clear clean break and perhaps a few days outside before putting on the trade. Sadly BTC can move a long way in that time. If we get a breakout and we are looking at $78,000 or more I would be ready to become very bullish.

Here is a chart showing that kind of level where the probability of a repricing is underway:

Charts are sketchy maps, not fate.

The current price is a reason to be bullish but not a reason to pop a bottle of bubbly just yet.

So as per last week, it’s still just time to hold and wait.

I still think we have another leg up and that “institutional” momentum in areas like ETF will give crypto one more leg up. We will know pretty soon, although a lot of people think it will take longer than I do for this and the halving to bite. It is always good to remember that getting the direction right is much easier than getting the timing right. As such, patience is certainly a virtue even in wild markets.

Disclosure: I own bitcoin.