Bitcoin moved above $20,000 last week and has sustained that level since, after spending much of the month sitting idly in the $19,000 range, suggesting to some eager investors that the tide may be turning for crypto. The cryptocurrency rose for the second week in a row, by 7.25%, although in the week prior it finished higher by just 0.01%. Ether notched an up week as well, its first one in the last four. It ended 19.48% higher. The upward push came ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting in the week ahead and midterm elections that follow in the next after that. “We have said all year that we could get positive news in November, and we believe that the FOMC meeting next week could come with positive comments ahead of the midterms about potential future rate hikes,” said Steven McClurg, co-founder and chief investment officer at digital asset fund manager Valkyrie Investments. “Additionally, elections bring more economic certainty, and a swing to a Republican-controlled House and Senate would satisfy the market to bring some upward momentum in risk asset pricing,” he added. “We are seeing a possible light at the end of the tunnel, and others are trading on these ideas.” October is a historically strong month for crypto, but this month, prices and volatility have been relatively flat. Just last week, bitcoin and ether were both down slightly for the month, but this week’s rise has pushed them into the green. If prices fall again, $18,100 would be the level to watch, Morgan Stanley’s Sheena Shah pointed out in a note Thursday. If they push higher, bitcoin’s recent high of $22,800 would be the next stop before $25,000. “In the short term, bitcoin may still need to shrug off the disappointment from the stock market, but the level around the $19,500 level will likely be support for the price,” said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank. “Bitcoin’s breakout from last week’s narrow range was accompanied by a substantial rise in trading volume, which, from a technical perspective, is a reliable breakout.” Don’t call it a bottom yet The odd inactivity has investors wondering if the crypto market could be turning for the better and breaking out of this year’s rut. It looks to many like the initial stage of a new bull run. However, there isn’t enough evidence quite yet to call it, analysts say. “In the past, when price volatility was this low, it usually meant that the downward trend was nearing its end, however, many of the on-chain metrics we have analyzed still can’t confirm that the price has completely bottomed,” said Julio Moreno, senior analyst at CryptoQuant. Not just that, investors also shouldn’t rule out another big drop. Charts from CryptoQuant show that in 2018 there was a 50% price decline that followed a period of low price volatility, taking bitcoin from $6,500 to $3,200 in a period of a month, Moreno noted. Similar to this year, that event followed a bear market in which bitcoin suffered a 67% drawdown from its peak, Morgan Stanley’s Shah said. It also suffered “crypto QT” – or what the firm has previously described as the “crypto equivalent of quantitative tightening” – following the decline in the Tether (USDT) stablecoin market cap. This year there’s been a gradual decline in USDT and USD Coin (USDC). This week Morgan Stanley pointed out that bitcoin’s 1-month realized volatility is now lower than the volatility of both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite – a “rare occurrence, only seen in November 2018 and October 2016,” Shah said the Thursday note. It’s not enough, though, CryptoQuant’s Moreno said. He’s also looking for an increase in flows from spot exchanges to derivative exchanges. That, combined with the recent low volatility, would provide more evidence of a bottom, but bitcoin today is still leaving derivative exchanges. “For low price volatility to be associated with bottoms, the portion of bitcoin inflows into exchanges dominated by whales ought to be relatively low,” he said. “In the case of the 2019 market bottom, this metric was at 68-70%, compared to about 83% currently.” CryptoQuant also analyzed bitcoin’s MVRV, or market value to realized value, ratio, which shows crypto hasn’t gone into undervalued territory. Additionally, long-term holders make up 80% of the cryptocurrency’s realized cap, which is in line with previous market cycles’ price bottoms. Both of these metrics support the idea that a market bottom is in, Moreno said.
