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Bitcoin is struggling to stay above 100,000 dollars, but traders are becoming increasingly optimistic about a possible rise. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, now estimates the probability of the cryptocurrency reaching 125,000 dollars by the end of June to be 44.4%, a significant upward revision compared to previous forecasts.
Bitcoin Could Reach 125,000 Dollars
Dr. Sean Dawson, director of research at Derive, an on-chain options protocol, published a report on February 13 revealing that the probability for Bitcoin to reach 125,000 dollars by June 2025 has increased from 41.9% to 44.4%.
This analysis comes as Bitcoin has been trading below the symbolic 100,000 dollars mark since February 7, after reaching a historical peak of 109,000 dollars on January 20, just before Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Downside risks seem to be easing, with the probability of a return to 75,000 dollars having dropped to 12.1%, compared to 17.8% previously. This outlook contrasts with that of Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who predicted in January a possible return to the 70,000-75,000 dollar range, a level he believes could trigger a “mini-financial crisis.”
A Market in a Consolidation Phase with Optimistic Prospects
The sentiment index of the crypto market currently displays a “neutral” score of 48 out of 100 as of February 14, reflecting a certain caution among investors. Trader Jelle emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin does not reclaim the 100,000 dollar mark, market conditions will remain unstable.
Nonetheless, long-term prospects remain very positive. VanEck, a major asset manager, maintains its forecast of a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025, before reaching new historical highs. Their analysts anticipate a Bitcoin price of 180,000 dollars “at the peak of the cycle” and Ethereum exceeding 6,000 dollars.
Despite a consolidation phase below 100,000 dollars, the influx of institutional investors and the success of Bitcoin ETFs suggest a return of the bullish trend. Analysts remain confident for the coming months, with some like Cathie Wood from ARK Invest even predicting a Bitcoin price of 1.5 million dollars by 2030.
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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j’aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l’outil qui peut rendre cela possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
