Eli Apple’s tackles, Mac Jones’ passing yards and 5 more wild card weekend prop bets from a scout’s POV – The Athletic


    Wild Card weekend is upon us and there are three keys I like to use to examine whether or not to go with the over or the under: Skill set, climate, and last but certainly not least – the matchup. We do this with fantasy when attempting to forecast a player’s success, but where things get a little tricky is that the playoffs come with very few surprises from a personnel and philosophical perspective.

    The regular-season tape is already in and there isn’t much else that teams will do from a schematic perspective that isn’t already on film. If a team is going to be bounced from the playoffs, they’re going to go out doing what they do best. This means defenses have seen it all and will adjust accordingly. Success many of these playoff offenses enjoyed during the regular season may be hard to come by, but if they execute at a high level, they can still hang their hat on what got them to this point.

    Here’s a look at some of the player props I like heading into Wild Card weekend:

    Derek Carr Under 254.5 Passing

    Let’s set the setting, shall we? It’ll be about 31 degrees in Cincinnati on Saturday with wind gusts around 11 mph. Both Derek Carr and Joe Burrow will make their first playoff starts this weekend, and while one quarterback has more NFL experience, the other has much more experience playing in cold weather. Playing in the cold is second nature to Joe Burrow, and he’ll likely be less affected by cooler temps than Carr and the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.

    Before losing Henry Ruggs III, Carr averaged 7.85 yards per passing attempt. In the remaining 10 games without Ruggs, Carr’s averaging 7.14 yards per passing attempt. Outside of an aging DeSean Jackson, the Raiders no longer have a player capable of stretching the field vertically. Yes, Darren Waller has great speed for a tight end, but can’t blow the top off of a defense the way Ruggs did. Due to the absence of a true deep threat, the Raiders’ offense is now more condensed.

    This iteration of the Raiders’ offense now consists of shallow crosses, quick outs, and now routes, which plays directly into the hands of the Bengals who play more of a “vision” defense at the second level. Due to these factors, I won’t be surprised if Carr finishes the contest with fewer than 254.5 yards.

    Joe Burrow Over 262.5 Passing

    On the flipside, I’d be shocked to see Joe Burrow finish the game with fewer than 262.5 yards through the air. Burrow is working with transcendent talent on the flanks and more than enough talent in the backfield to eventually force the Raiders to walk a safety into the box. The Raiders will truly be in a bind in this game. The idea will be to keep two safeties high and force Burrow and company to work methodically down the field.

    Unfortunately, the Raiders gave up 114.3 yards per game on the ground during the 2021 season and I don’t see how Mixon and his backfield mates won’t have success. This will eventually force the Raiders to abandon their Cover-2 shell. Another reason Burrow is likely to go over 262.5 is because of his secondary reaction skills. He’s much more mobile than many football fans believe and thanks to his ability to avoid pressure while keeping his eyes upfield, routes will have an opportunity to develop, which will give his all-world receivers more time to gain separation.

    Eli Apple Over 3.5 Tackles

    A vision defense essentially means a form of zone or any defense that allows a player in the secondary to keep everything in front of them. The Cincinnati Bengals play a great deal of zone, which means the corners and safeties will be responsible for rallying to the receiver or ballcarrier, and making the tackle. With guys like Darren Waller, Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow primed to receive the bulk of the receptions, Bengals corners and safeties will need to be sure to wrap up and get their man on the ground to limit the effectiveness of the Raiders’ timing offense.

    The defense that Apple is in will allow him to keep his eyes on the quarterback and close on the wide receiver to make the tackle, and that’s why I have him at +3.5 tackles for Saturday. If he gets a good jump on the ball, he could come away with at least one interception, similar to the one in the clip above.

    Mac Jones Under 204.5 Passing

    Coming into the season, Mac Jones had never played in a game colder than 30 degrees. Unfortunately, temperatures will drop down to as low as four degrees Saturday evening when Jones and the Patriots travel to Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills. On top of freezing temps, Jones will also have to face the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense. The Bills gave up just 163 passing yards per game this season, and their defense matches up incredibly well with New England’s wide receivers.

    Jones’ may have some success in the quick game but the Bills speedy linebackers (especially Tremaine Edmunds) do a great job of getting sideline-to-sideline and limiting yards after the catch. Additionally, the Patriots’ wide receivers will likely have a difficult time gaining separation against the Bills stingy corners.

    Jakobi Meyers Under 45.5 Receiving

    Jakobi Meyers is clearly the Patriots’ best wide receiver, and I believe in ideal weather he could very well surpass 45.5 yards in this matchup. The last time he played against Buffalo in somewhat normal conditions, he racked up 59 yards in a 33-21 loss to the Bills. With temperatures well below freezing, I highly anticipate the Patriots going with a game plan very similar to their 14-10, Week 13 victory over the Bills where Jones was 2 of 3 for 19 yards.

    The Patriots will likely run the ball a great deal in this matchup, but don’t expect Jones to throw much at all. As a result, I think it’s safe to say Meyers will put up fewer than 45.5 yards in this matchup.

    Jimmy Garoppolo Over 0.5 Ints

    We’ve all seen Jimmy Garoppolo become a little frenetic in the pocket and make poor decisions under pressure. During Wild Card weekend we’ll likely see the same as the Dallas Cowboys led the NFL this season in takeaways with 34. Dallas was able to turn the football over this season due in large part to its defense’s ability to get pressure on the quarterback. Emblematic of Dallas’ aggressive nature is the frequency in which they blitzed during the 2021 season. Dallas brought more than five pass rushers on 43.6% of opposing QB dropbacks. Additionally, 11 of Dallas’ 34 turnovers came from them deciding to blitz the quarterback.

    It’s clear that the speed of Randy Gregory and Micah Parsons has transformed Dallas’ defense. I’d be highly surprised if the pressure, combined with the thumb injury doesn’t cause Garoppolo to throw at least one pick against Dallas on Sunday.

    Brandon Aiyuk Over 50.5 Receiving

    The Dallas Cowboys are the defensive equivalent to Bruce Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” offensive philosophy. Despite Dallas’ league-leading 34 takeaways, they also gave up 4,049 yards through the air this season. Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs might have led the league with 11 interceptions, but he also led the league in yards allowed with 962. Dallas’ entire secondary is very porous and they’ll assuredly be in search of talent opposite of Diggs this offseason. Dallas knows this and that’s why they blitz more than any team in the NFL. If the 49ers can pick up a blitz a time or two, or give Garoppolo some time off play-action, it won’t take Brandon Aiyuk many receptions to go over 50.5 yards on the day.

    Look for Aiyuk on in-breaking routes and potentially a double move in route to +50.5 yards receiving.

    (Top photo: Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

    Get all-access to exclusive stories.

    Subscribe to The Athletic for ad-free, in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.


    START FREE TRIAL





    Source link

    Previous articleAMD Renoir-X Ryzen 4000 may rival new Intel Alder Lake CPUs
    Next articleTSMC and MediaTek are going on hiring sprees in 2022, says report

    RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR