The head of digital assets research at exchange-traded fund issuer VanEck says Bitcoin (BTC) has more upside potential.
In a new interview on the David Lin report, Matthew Sigel says that over the near term, Bitcoin could go up by around 87% from the current level this year if the flagship crypto asset behaves like it previously has during the past three cycles.
“In the near term, we do tend to assume that the four-year cycle will hold until the market tells us otherwise. And the most explosive part of the Bitcoin cycle tends to happen in the one year after the halving.
So we had the last halving in April of last year, and there was a nice election-related run-up… 2025 should also be a strong year. The question is how strong? Each cycle for Bitcoin has produced smaller and smaller returns. The previous smallest-ever cycle was 2,000% from the trough to the peak [from around $3,200 to $69,000].
So if we assume a 1,000% price return, that would be roughly $180,000 for this cycle. So that’s our base case…
…my best guess is a 1,000% from trough to peak is a reasonable case for this cycle likely to peak out in Q4 of this year.”
According to Sigel, Bitcoin could go even higher over the medium term if it is widely adopted as a reserve asset.
“Over the medium term, we benchmark this asset to gold and specifically the 50% of the gold market that’s used for speculative purposes rather than jewelry and industrial purposes. So if you assume that Bitcoin can surpass that kind of 50% of gold market cap level, that would be a $450,000 Bitcoin price target. So that’s our medium-term assumption for what Bitcoin can reach over several years.”
Bitcoin is trading at $96,173 at time of writing.
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